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March 20/21 STORM Obs/Discussion- No Banter


nj2va

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not sure I follow your logic. Today went as expected near the cities but the northern and western folks cleaned up. Things broke in favor big time. Latest models runs look incredible for the areas that didn't get the snow they shouldn't have been expecting today. Qpf has been juicier than forecast nearly everywhere already. 

And it's going to rip late tonight and  tomorrow.  Get your shovel tuned and oiled. 

I just mean it better rip because light precip seems to be more of a mix. That seems to happen a lot with these late season storms. 

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I just mean it better rip because light precip seems to be more of a mix. That seems to happen a lot with these late season storms. 

Gotchya. I'm under a minor band right now and it's decent light snow. I think we're mostly done with mixed precip west of 95 but it's going to be light until sometime after 2am. Watching that stuff down south off the coast rotate into a blossoming upper level low is going to be pretty wild tonight. Need to figure out the sleep thing though....lol

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They upped totals...

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
526 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016-504-506-VAZ040-052>055-057-501-502-506-
210530-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0007.180321T0600Z-180322T0000Z/
District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-
Anne Arundel-Charles-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Howard-Rappahannock-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun-
526 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10
  inches are expected.
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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not sure I follow your logic. Today went as expected near the cities but the northern and western folks cleaned up. Things broke in favor big time. Latest models runs look incredible for the areas that didn't get the snow they shouldn't have been expecting today. Qpf has been juicier than forecast nearly everywhere already. 

And it's going to rip late tonight and  tomorrow.  Get your shovel tuned and oiled. 

Get ready to be SHELLACKED by snow, BIG TIME.

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16 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

They upped totals...

 


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
526 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016-504-506-VAZ040-052>055-057-501-502-506-
210530-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0007.180321T0600Z-180322T0000Z/
District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-
Anne Arundel-Charles-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Howard-Rappahannock-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun-
526 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10
  inches are expected.

8-14" for the northern counties. I'm not so sure I've ever seen a forecast that high, this late in the season. Without a doubt, this is a full fledged MECS.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
526 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

MDZ006-503-505-507-508-VAZ027-030-031-505-210530-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0006.180321T0000Z-180322T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-180321T0000Z/
Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Shenandoah-Warren-Clarke-
Western Loudoun-
526 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected for the remainder of today,
  with heavy snow expected tonight and Wednesday. Storm total
  accumulations of 8 to 14 inches expected. Totals of 18 inches
  are possible over the Catoctin Mountains.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland and northern
  Virginia.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 8 PM this evening to
  8 PM EDT Wednesday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 8
  PM EDT this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. With
  the wet snow, be prepared for a power outage as well.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

A Winter Weather Advisory for wet snow means periods of wet snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling
from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
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3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

8-14" for the northern counties. I'm not so sure I've ever seen a forecast that high, this late in the season. Without a doubt, this is a full fledged MECS.

 



 

 

Given how late in the season we are, the potential for a record low max temp tomorrow, the QPF, the double hit, and the potential stalling tomorrow, respectfully proposed this may end up being a HECS.  Hope we're feeling the same 24 hours from now. 

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3 minutes ago, RDM said:

Given how late in the season we are, the potential for a record low max temp tomorrow, the QPF, the double hit, and the potential stalling tomorrow, respectfully proposed this may end up being a HECS.  Hope we're feeling the same 24 hours from now. 

I think some of the people who are already reporting 5-8" could end up with 20+, depending on how the banding sets up tomorrow, so HECS totals may be in reach for a few lucky ones.

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