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March 20/21 STORM Obs/Discussion- No Banter


nj2va

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Afternoon AFD from LWX -- I grabbed the most important part of it for tonight into tomorrow:

Things change considerably late tonight. Both the surface and
upper lows will be strengthening as they head east and northeast
toward us, and as divergence and isentropic lift increase late
tonight, snow, heavy at times, will overspread the region later
tonight from west-southwest to east-northeast. Have started
warning/advisory in areas without current headlines just before
this heavier band of precip is expected to move in. One thing if
note is that a warm layer could remain aloft (as depicted by
various guidance such as the NAM) into the overnight, so the
steadier precip may start as a mix of snow and sleet before
transitioning to all snow. As the low continues to strenghten
during the day Wednesday and gradually gets captured by the
upper low, heavy snow could potentially continue much of the day
across the CWA, and our totals could very well be conservative.
Would not be surprised to see additional significant revisions
to the forecast even at this late hour. Winds will be northeast
to north gusting 20-25 mph, so not a blizzard, but perhaps a
factor for severity of conditions. Accumulations will be QPF and
ratio dependent, with our current graphic including the snow
which fell today. Thus, highest totals for the whole event are
still expected for northwestern areas, with totals locally over
a foot most likely in these areas. However, given the intensity
of the precip band expected to cross the region on Wednesday
with the second low, would not be shocked if some places that
haven`t seen much so far could still manage to get close to a
foot. Temps through the next 24-30 hours will continue to be
near or a bit below freezing, with not much change overall.

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We had some brief mixing with snow this afternoon, but other than that it has been sleet mixed with freezing rain all day.  Over 0.5" of sleet on the ground so far, with pellets frozen together into a hard sheet of ice.

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Looks like we're about done for a few hours in Leesburg.   Just "snow drizzle" if you will, with radar showing nothing with a couple of hours.    First part has been a bit of a bust - only gotten about half inch of sleet/snow mix in this first part of the storm.  One one point the forecast was 8-10" today; now down to 3-5".

Sigh.

 

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Sleet has been falling mixed with rain for several hours now, but becoming more sleet than rain. Light precipitation is keeping accumulation to a minimum. There is a trace coating on cars, driveways and elevated surfaces. I measured 0.23" of rain at 8am and then an additional 1.2" at 3:30pm with sleet accumulating on top of the Cocorahs gauge. Lots of QPF for this event. Location is halfway between Waldorf and LaPlata

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