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nj2va

March 20/21 STORM Obs/Discussion- No Banter

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25 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Closing in on 5" now.  Most of the morning has been close to 2" an hour rates.

9:45 a.m.-- 1"

10:20 a.m.-- 2"

10:50 a.m.-- 3"

11:30 a.m.-- 4.7"

Wow that's great, congrats! I'm still sitting on 1/2".

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16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the end of Round #1 back towards I-64.

I don't think it will work like that. We have good lift and a boundary draped right through the region. Precip will turn light but I really don't think there will be a true lull. 

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I'm curious... how accurately does this radar (taken a few minutes ago) reflect current obs? 

Z7LHEYZ.jpg

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I don't think it will work like that. We have good lift and a boundary draped right through the region. Precip will turn light but I really don't think there will be a true lull. 

I'm fine with that...just don't want us to stop precipitating.

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7 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said:

Wow that's great, congrats! I'm still sitting on 1/2".

Thanks.  Hopefully some of the bands developing and riding up I-81 will boost your totals soon.

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4 minutes ago, cae said:

I'm curious... how accurately does this radar (taken a few minutes ago) reflect current obs? 

 

It's not perfect by any means.  I'm all sleet, but shows me as all rain.  I don't think most of MoCo and the VA side of 495 are all snow. 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It's not perfect by any means.  I'm all sleet, but shows me as all rain.  I don't think most of MoCo and the VA side of 495 are all snow. 

Correct. I'm not sure how that gets calculated, but it's definitely not snow in DC, and wife said it's not snowing in Burke.

Edit: Weather Underground's wundermap claims it's snowing at home, and the current conditions say Heavy Snow, but it's not.

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6 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

3" here.  light/mod snow now after a brief lull.  Radar looks good

 

17 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

1 inch so far of snow/sleet in Smithsburg M.D.. Kind of surprised that sleet has been mixed in the majority of the time.

Currently light snow/sleet combo.

Surprised boonsboro has more than smithburg

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Down to 32.4° with sleet sticking on the grass and cars in Gaithersburg.  

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9 minutes ago, cae said:

I'm curious... how accurately does this radar (taken a few minutes ago) reflect current obs? 

Z7LHEYZ.jpg

Shows too much snow.

E.g. I'm in Dulles VA (right under the "33"), and we haven't gotten any snow.   Mostly rain all morning, now a mix with some sleet.

 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't think it will work like that. We have good lift and a boundary draped right through the region. Precip will turn light but I really don't think there will be a true lull. 

Continued nothing.  Sounds like Falling Waters area is the jackpot.  Big totals seemingly will verify there.  Euro might have nailed that area.  

00Z Nams seemed to have nailed my area.  Light / broken precip and dry-slotting that kept showing up over the Valley in those runs has come to realization.

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Meso'd:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2018/md0159.html

Quote

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0159
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Areas affected...Northern Maryland into southeastern Pennsylvania
and New Jersey

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 
Valid 201619Z - 202015Z


SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy snow will develop across the
discussion area, with rates will approach 1 inch per hour.  Freezing rain/sleet should also continue along the southern extent of the discussion area.

DISCUSSION...Lift associated with a mid-level impulse centered over West Virginia has aided in areas of moderate to heavy snow over the past hour or so - especially along western and southern portions of the discussion area.  This area of precipitation should continue to
develop northeastward across the remainder of the region and persist through at least 20Z.  Areas of dry low-level air were noted downstream of this precip shield (into southeastern Pennsylvania), although rapid moistening of the boundary layer and cooling surface temperatures (just below freezing) will encourage higher precipitation rates in that area shortly.  Rates approaching 1 inch per hour are possible through mid-afternoon.

Farther southeast along an axis from central Maryland into New
Jersey, slightly warmer low-level thermodynamic profiles are
supporting a mixing of rain, freezing rain, and sleet.  This mixed
precipitation should continue through 20Z and possibly beyond as a
coastal low continues to organize southeast of the region.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Amped said:

 

Surprised boonsboro has more than smithburg

2" of that came in a little under 2 hours around 10am.  Huge fatties....

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