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March 20/21 STORM Obs/Discussion- No Banter


nj2va

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14 minutes ago, umdterps29 said:

If it makes you feel any better I'm in Canton and I only have about .25" of sleet and absolutely no snow to head into tomorrow with

Thanks.  Doesn't actually make me feel better - I like to see everyone who wants snow get it.  I think you'll be fine tomorrow though.  The next round should tart when it's still dark, and by the time the sun comes up there should be enough white on the ground to reflect about 80% the March sun.

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Screw it I am staying up for that! I dont want to take a chance on sleeping through that band. And it should be here by 1:30 or so I think.

Stay up if you can do whatever you have to do! I have never in my life seen something like this. Just had another huge crack of thunder! Can’t even see 50ft up the street.

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Screw it I am staying up for that! I dont want to take a chance on sleeping through that band. And it should be here by 1:30 or so I think.

This is a terrible dilemma. I can stay up for The Blob at 130am and be super tired for CCB Annihilation later, but the last time I tried the 'I'm gonna sleep first' option, I ended up missing the main show lmao.

Decisions, decisions.......

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3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

This is a terrible dilemma. I can stay up for The Blob at 130am and be super tired for CCB Annihilation later, but the last time I tried the 'I'm gonna sleep first' option, I ended up missing the main show lmao.

Decisions, decisions.......

Stay up bro'....skipped over from the Southeast to check on the Mid-Atlantic...I'm in the NW corner of the mtns. and loving the paste job heading your way...yall' gonna get a big ol' thump of snow and more to come this weekend  

Good luck and props to Buddy1987....he's in a sweet spot right now

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4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Just picked up an inch of snow in 10 min.

Dude, I love these types of storms. Very rare although we've had a few the last decade. Enjoy it to the max and appreciate how much energy is bottled up in the upper levels. It's a beast. Take pics, videos, and write notes. You'll still be talking about this one in 25 years. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dude, I love these types of storms. Very rare although we've had a few the last decade. Enjoy it to the max and appreciate how much energy is bottled up in the upper levels. It's a beast. Take pics, videos, and write notes. You'll still be talking about this one in 25 years. 

Bob, I'm with ya. It's been so looooong since a Grade A snow storm around here I think we'll all remember this one for years to come. The way it all came together is just classic. Don't give a damn if we get the high end totals, just happy to get solid white mashed potatoes on everything.

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Yes and it continues to absolutely pour down. These rates are incredible. 

I hope you and CharlesTown get utterly annihilated beyond all of your wildest dreams. It's about time the mountains get some real snow this winter.

Enjoy!

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
950 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal low pressure just off the Mid-Atlantic coast will drift
northeastward toward southeast New England through early
Thursday. High pressure will build into the area from the
Midwest late Thursday through Saturday. Low pressure will
develop over the mid-Mississippi Valley Friday night then pass
south of the area early Sunday as a strong area of high
pressure develops to our north. This high pressure will ridge
southward into the area briefly early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Temperatures this evening are running a couple degrees cooler
than most near-term guidance. Therefore, siding with colder
guidance for low level thermals for the next 6-12 hours.

Low pressure wave one is currently meandering off the southeast
Virginia coast with a central pressure of about 996 mb according
to latest surface analysis. Meanwhile, wave two is taking shape
over the Carolinas, with an area of precipitation developing
under/just north of the mid-level low center over southwestern
Virginia. This area of precipitation will expand northeastward
tonight, bringing snow to much of the region. Wave two should
commence shortly after midnight for areas of central Virginia
and the central Shenandoah Valley (near Harrisonburg to
Charlottesville), then develop into northern Virginia and the
Washington DC/Baltimore areas a couple hours prior to daybreak.

While precipitation is light, areas east of the Blue Ridge will
likely see a mix of snow, sleet and possibly even some freezing
drizzle. Amounts should be very light until steadier snow begins
later tonight. Snow will likely be heavy at times tomorrow
morning into at least early afternoon (possibly well into the
evening over northeastern Maryland). Overall, this system has
continued to trend slower and stronger. Any non-snow
precipitation types likely scour out from west to east by
daybreak as the column dynamically cools and isallobaric flow
advects in colder air.

Have continued to nudge snowfall amounts upward some given the
longer duration and potential banding. Some hi-res guidance
(RGEM/NAM3km/WRF-ARW) indicate the potential for some intense
banding which could lead to even higher totals (directly under
the band; immediately adjacent to these bands sometimes
experiences subsidence and somewhat lower amounts). The 12z
ECMWF was the most aggressive and widespread with higher
snowfall amounts. The forecast has trended in this direction but
not 100%, and am instead considering the raw model output as a
guide for a worst case scenario solution.

Factors such as precipitation intensity and proximity to
relatively warmer water are amplified in late March when the sun
angle is higher, so highly variable snowfall amounts are
possible over relatively short distances. The consistency of the
snow may be a touch wetter than climatology, and that given the
high amounts and budding trees could result in downed limbs and
scattered power outages, despite winds generally staying below
30 mph through the duration of the event.
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