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Hoosier

March 23-24 Winter Storm

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Raw 2m temps off the models have a strip of temps near/a touch below freezing in the main band even during peak heating on Saturday afternoon, so we might not get something completely heart attack like 6:1 ratios.  The main band might be able to manage like 9-10:1 imo  

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41 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Those are rather robust EPS probabilities, though as we’ve seen this winter even the EPS is prone to windshield wipering a bit.  6” at 10:1 might be 3 or 4” of cement with this setup, though some members, the op, Canadian, and NAM have over an inch of qpf as snow in the main band.  

Hey, when/if you get a minute, can you give your arguments on why this could go further south & why it could go further north. Just curious. Thanks in advance!

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1 minute ago, Jackstraw said:

Lake effect rain?

 

 

I think the model is illustrating the "warm" lake modifying the air mass downwind of the lake, due to the ESE winds...which warms up the low layers just enough to switch the precip over to rain.

But I could be wrong...

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20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Raw 2m temps off the models have a strip of temps near/a touch below freezing in the main band even during peak heating on Saturday afternoon, so we might not get something completely heart attack like 6:1 ratios.  The main band might be able to manage like 9-10:1 imo  

That would be good for a number of reasons, would accumulate more and be less cement-like, maybe limiting power outage potential some. Feeling good about someone seeing those 6-10” amounts you’ve mentioned, just where exactly is the question 

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5 minutes ago, Baum said:

^

kiss of death:yikes:

That's why I said up to this point lol.  Believe me I'm not buying into anything until we're into the HRRR range the way the models have been this winter.

Gut feeling is Dubuque to Rochelle and Joliet cash in, with a sloppy inch or two here.  

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

That's why I said up to this point lol.  Believe me I'm not buying into anything until we're into the HRRR range the way the models have been this winter.

For the first time ever, I'm legitimately trying to do so also.

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2 hours ago, OHweather said:

Timing isn’t quite optimal in southern OH during the afternoon and evening and temps are really marginal...Euro is best with temps near 32 under the heaviest band during the day, but the gfs and CMC are warmer...it’d take some heavy rates to pull off cooling to near freezing mid afternoon...I’m setting my optimistic expectations at a narrow swath of 3-6” somewhere this far to the east if it pans out.  It’ll be a very wet snow and it could be fun, and I’ll be in SE OH on Saturday so I’m continuing to watch it.  

If you're going to be in Athens, you're going to need a healthy move east with this system.   On another note, what an interesting set up.  Is this a warm front?   Or is it a baroclinic overrunning that happens to be oriented nw to se instead of the usual sw to ne?   Wonder if there is an analog for this.   

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Looking good here on west side suburbs of indy. Fingers crossed cause it's about time. Want this one big snow and then to finally have this nuisance neg nao depart. All 3 big models seem to have an area from quad cities to Champaign through central in and down to Cindy area in the best area. 

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1 minute ago, zinski1990 said:

Looking good here on west side suburbs of indy. Fingers crossed cause it's about time. Want this one big snow and then to finally have this nuisance neg nao depart. All 3 big models seem to have an area from quad cities to Champaign through central in and down to Cindy area in the best area. 

Can't argue that Indy deserves a good hammering.  Long overdue, you guys are in even worse shape then we have been.

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For goodness sakes, supposed to depart CVG around 4 PM Sat for the Keys.....and the storm of the decade (for CVG at least) is potentially on the horizon...where is that northward shift? 


Leaving at 2pm Sat from ORD for Aspen. So I’m rooting for things to stay south. Which one of us will win? Either way I lose because there’s also rain in the forecast for Aspen, maybe even up to 10,000 feet. Something will give because I can’t believe the universe would do me on both ends like that :-)

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55 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

That's why I said up to this point lol.  Believe me I'm not buying into anything until we're into the HRRR range the way the models have been this winter.

Gut feeling is Dubuque to Rochelle and Joliet cash in, with a sloppy inch or two here.  

My axis would be just south of there.

Thinking the heaviest axis should be in a similar area to what was seen with the 12/29 and 2/5 events, with sharp cutoffs to the north and south of that.

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

If you're going to be in Athens, you're going to need a healthy move east with this system.   On another note, what an interesting set up.  Is this a warm front?   Or is it a baroclinic overrunning that happens to be oriented nw to se instead of the usual sw to ne?   Wonder if there is an analog for this.   

I was thinking 3/21/2008 shifted southward.  

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3 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

Hey, when/if you get a minute, can you give your arguments on why this could go further south & why it could go further north. Just curious. Thanks in advance!

I’ll see if I have time to draw something after work.  But in general watch the trough over the northeast.  If it pulls out a bit faster and shears out our shortwave less we have a little room for a NE shift.  There have been a few times this winter where confluence over the northeast has trended weaker and allowed for a slightly more amped storm...we’ll see.  

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

If you're going to be in Athens, you're going to need a healthy move east with this system.   On another note, what an interesting set up.  Is this a warm front?   Or is it a baroclinic overrunning that happens to be oriented nw to se instead of the usual sw to ne?   Wonder if there is an analog for this.   

I’ll be in Athens.  CMC, NAM, and some Euro members do hit Athens decently but most models are a little west.  It looks like overrunning over a warm/stationary front.  

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6 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I’ll see if I have time to draw something after work.  But in general watch the trough over the northeast.  If it pulls out a bit faster and shears out our shortwave less we have a little room for a NE shift.  There have been a few times this winter where confluence over the northeast has trended weaker and allowed for a slightly more amped storm...we’ll see.  

Thank you sir!

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7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

That's why I said up to this point lol.  Believe me I'm not buying into anything until we're into the HRRR range the way the models have been this winter.

Gut feeling is Dubuque to Rochelle and Joliet cash in, with a sloppy inch or two here.  

The euro is the farthest sw at this point, putting you into the heart of the snow band.  However, a bit farther ne with the rest of the models seems like the best bet.  I'm also leaning toward a sloppy inch or two, here.  I'd love to get a positive surprise to the end the season, though.  A nice 5-6" thump would bump me to avg.

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The general trend on the available 00z runs has been a southward shift.

Puts me now on the NE fringes...though probably not a bad place to be right now. With how narrow the snow band will be, not sure I'd feel comfortable until go time. Should be an interesting one to watch unfold.

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Figured DVN would wait till after the 12Z Data was in today to hoist, but woke up to a surprise alert this morning.

 

watch.png

A Winter Storm Watch was issued for parts of the area from Friday night into early Saturday afternoon. There is potential for a period of heavy wet snow and strong east winds. The exact location of the heaviest snow is uncertain, so keep up with forecast updates through Friday. If you have travel plans through the Upper Mississippi Valley, be prepared to encounter very hazardous conditions.

chiwatvh.png.d95b451d78a8dc738e7b7861ad1ec267.png

The potential for a winter storm continues to increase for some of the area Friday night through mid-afternoon Saturday. Precipitation will spread into the area Friday evening, possibly starting as rain, especially south. Snow will be the primary type by overnight into Saturday morning and heavy at times, especially in the yellow and orange shaded areas on the map. There will very likely be a sharp gradient in snowfall amounts between the purple lines, including the Rockford area and into the Chicago metro. Snow will end from north to south Saturday afternoon. Plan for hazardous travel in much of the Winter Storm Watch area by late Friday night and into the day Saturday. The snow will be wet and heavy, and with gusty winds likely will stick to many surfaces. The heavier weight of the snow also will be difficult to shovel for some.

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Well how about that.  Sitting here a couple blocks from the  LOT offices and got myself a Winter Storm Watch.  Sitting smack dab in the middle of the annotation of uncertainty 

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This is super....we're supposed to leave DKB early Sat morning for a road trip to North Carolina for spring break. Our route follows the modeled storm path almost exactly through southern OH.

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1 minute ago, Baum said:

Sniffing heartbreak here just north of I-88 here in central Dupage county 20 miles west of downtown Chicago. 

Purely as an enthusiast, March snow storms in Chicago seem to be full of surprises.  I remember one in 98(?) that plastered us in early March.  Went to bed as a kid thinking it was going to rain and woke up to a ton of cement.  This was about 11 miles due south of Midway Airport.  Anyway, from my point of view, the uncertainty is welcome this time of year

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