Jackstraw Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Goes 16 low level water vapor shows the "dry line" roughly from LAF to just SE of CVG through IN atm. There's so many butterfly's to the effect of this thing it's at least been cool to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Recent HRRR runs have been shifting the snow north over here. Several runs ago, it was quickly sagging the rain/snow line well south of CR/IC, but now it's keeping mixing up to CR for much of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 HRRR and especially RAP are spitting out obscene amounts of QPF. Now a large area of 2"+ near the QC back through Iowa City on the latest run of the RAP, with precip still falling. Models have bumped the axis a tad further northeast compared to previous runs as well. Think I'm gonna bump my 8-10" call up to 8-12" with isolated higher amounts for both here and the QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 ^ if this were to verify let this be a lesson for every sun angles too high winters over on January 15th whiner! Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 The nam continues to spit out a widespread swath of 12”+, spreads the heavy snow further NE too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Like Hawkeye said, the NAM and HRRR are getting pretty aggressive with the warm push putting the CR area in danger of mixing. Especially on the NAM, but already has a terrible forecast at 03z as it shows precip already to the MS river. Gonna be a wait and see storm, which I sure hope the HRRR is over modelling the warm push aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 24, 2018 Author Share Posted March 24, 2018 19 minutes ago, Baum said: ^ if this were to verify let this be a lesson for every sun angles too high winters over on January 15th whiner! Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 The models have really slowed the departure of the snows as well in the past few runs. This was originally looking to be mostly over by early afternoon, but the lingering trowel like feature keeps it snowing through early evening now lol. This is really starting to look extremely impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The models have really slowed the departure of the snows as well in the past few runs. This was originally looking to be mostly over by early afternoon, but the lingering trowel like feature keeps it snowing through early evening now lol. This is really starting to look extremely impressive. Assuming the warm push doesn't mess it up. But someone is gonna cash in for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 24, 2018 Author Share Posted March 24, 2018 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The models have really slowed the departure of the snows as well in the past few runs. This was originally looking to be mostly over by early afternoon, but the lingering trowel like feature keeps it snowing through early evening now lol. This is really starting to look extremely impressive. Even the Kuchera map has a 2 foot bullseye in Iowa. Going to be interesting to see what the high end totals end up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Man tricky forecast. Going to be a nowcast for sure. Nam doesn't want to budge. Def wish I was sitting more north. That mixing line is tricky to pin down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Strongest pressure falls now support the low to move towards SE KS. Low track will be critical because that impacts how far north this warm nose at 850mb gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 East winds have really picked up over the past hour or so, and the dry/cool advection from the east has dropped the temp/dew down to 37/18. The relative benign mild day has already transformed into a more wintry feel. Precip should begin in a few hours. I'm saving this one for posterity. The 01z RAP. Verbatim this would be 13-18" of snow for the QCA with LSRs AOB 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 32 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Even the Kuchera map has a 2 foot bullseye in Iowa. Going to be interesting to see what the high end totals end up being The NAM has put a big scare into me by pushing the heavy snow band 1-2 counties farther northeast and putting CR into garbage sleet all night. That would be an enormous letdown. Could King Euro really have missed a surge of warm air at 700 mb up into east-central Iowa. DMX just upped Mason City and Waterloo to 10-13" with isolated higher totals. I have heard several rumbles of thunder in the last 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 RAP smoking something. Lol. Would love if that verified. But hrrr seems more realistic. Temps tanking here. Went from upper 40s to upper 30s relatively quickly. Evaporative cooling ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 The consistently furthest southwest RGEM took a nice step northeast with the new 00z. Moves the precip out considerably quicker than the NAM bruthas, but still deposits over 1.5" of QPF on the QC and Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 24, 2018 Author Share Posted March 24, 2018 8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: East winds have really picked up over the past hour or so, and the dry/cool advection from the east has dropped the temp/dew down to 37/18. The relative benign mild day has already transformed into a more wintry feel. Precip should begin in a few hours. I'm saving this one for posterity. The 01z RAP. Verbatim this would be 13-18" of snow for the QCA with LSRs AOB 10:1. Already fairly moist in the mid levels at DVN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The NAM has put a big scare into me by pushing the heavy snow band 1-2 counties farther northeast and putting CR into garbage sleet all night. That would be an enormous letdown. Hopefully it will just be some periods of mixed heavy sleet in the midst of the heavy snowfall. With such strong forcing and lift you'd think it would fend off any warm layer trying to move in. A totally different type of storm system, but I remember the Dec '87 blizzard brought several waves of very heavy sleet mixed in with the heavy snow. It didn't have much of an impact on snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The consistently furthest southwest RGEM took a nice step northeast with the new 00z. Moves the precip out considerably quicker than the NAM bruthas, but still deposits over 1.5" of QPF on the QC and Cedar Rapids. Can you post the map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Seeing steady sleet here at the moment and the temp is falling fast. My thermometer reads 39, down from 45. I look at radar and it seems CC is saying 1 of 2 things, I'm not really sure which. 1 being that the entire N portion of the band is sleet(or at least partially sleet), which I find hard to believe. Or 2(more likely) the DVN beam is just intercepting the freezing/mixing level, in which case I think it will be interesting to see how that behaves later when the switch to snow occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Already fairly moist in the mid levels at DVN Yeah the cross section analysis has been interesting to look at this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Can you post the map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Already fairly moist in the mid levels at DVN Yea...Even with it only an 18F DP at DVN, looks like precip should begin shortly with that sounding...and given radar echos are near the radar site as it is. Little wasted on virga looks likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 This is getting interesting...being on the NE edge is nervewracking but I guess its better than being on the SW end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Man wish I could get a snow map with counties for that. I have a subscription to weathermodels and it doesn't let you zoom in on the cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 A few snowflakes/ Flurries already making it to the ground here in downtown DVN. Lightning back to the west...This is going to be an extremely fun night and day setting up around here. Dynamics are certainly flexing this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Man wish I could get a snow map with counties for that. I have a subscription to weathermodels and it doesn't let you zoom in on the cmc The always correct RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Dry air wins in the twin cities, probably won’t see a flake. Bummed because was hoping for a powder day closing weekend at Welch Village ski area. Glad to see Iowa ready to cash in. There should be some nice double digit totals come tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Man wish I could get a snow map with counties for that. I have a subscription to weathermodels and it doesn't let you zoom in on the cmc Here's one from pivotalweather. EDIT: Ninja'd by NWLINN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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