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March 23-24 Winter Storm


Hoosier

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1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Ok, but explain how I'm not even under an Advisory while 20-25 miles south they are under a Warning ? That would be the sharpest cutoff in the history of snowstorms.

That's a good question. Map just updated with some advisories in Indiana. Wilmington also has some strange criteria for southern areas.

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1 hour ago, zinski1990 said:

I swear the nws in indy hates winter storm warnings. What the hell. Just says 2-5 inches now most conservative office ever. So the streak continues. Been since March 1, 2015 since last winter storm warning here in Indy and metro counties. Dont get it

Always the possibility of an upgrade later.  In fact I would say there's a reasonable possibility.

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2 hours ago, CoachLB said:

Cleared out a chunk of SW Ohio counties. Few advisories and a warning.

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2 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Interesting that the county I'm in (Wayne County, IN) has been dropped but the county to the north is under a Watch, county to the West is under a Watch, county to the south is under an Advisory. Seriously, how can the county to the north be under a Watch ? Does anyone else find that map odd in Eastern IN ? Oh yeah, and I'm not under even an Advisory while 2 counties south is under a Warning !

Is this better? IND/IWX cancelled the Watch to your north and the advisory matches up pretty well with the lolNAM cutoff, disregarding the amounts and focusing on placement.

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So it's NAM and Euro vs. the GFS as far as IN is concerned.  Winter advisory for me.  Maybe I'll get 3 inches of snow like the other day, which then melted by afternoon.  Would like to see some thundersnow as was mentioned as a possibility by IWXwx but will have to look at upcoming 18z and 00z runs to be sure.

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3 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Gfs comes North a tad as well. Last minute shifts never fail to show up this winter 

It didn't shift north, nor did the NAM.

It all revolves around saturation. Both had better saturation, thus snows further north.

It seems the past 2 days 6/18z runs have had better saturation and 0/12z runs worse. My guess is it might have to do with data being ingested, with fresh data for on-hour runs and not so much on off-hour runs.

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DVN had an excellent AFD noting the possible caveats in this setup and what's working for it. They did not that pressure fall patterns are supporting a low track compromise between 12z euro and 12z gfs. Models def have juiced up the southern edge of the snow band which could be the result of dynamic cooling. Hrrr continues to be quite bullish with big totals here but not getting my hopes up.....yet....lol

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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Currently 50 at DVN and 51 at MLI... Could have ~12"+ there by this time tomorrow.

Yeah it has been sort of a strange day, as it felt pretty nice outside with the warm late March sun despite the breezy east winds.  Definitely didn't have the feel that a big snowstorm was incoming.  100 years ago you would have no idea about what was about to go down.

Encouraged to the see the Euro correct back northeast.  Sort of riding the northeast edge of the heavier amounts here on most of the guidance.  Don't think we'll be in the heaviest axis, but I'm still gonna go bullish and go with 8-10" for here.  I'll go with that for the QC as well, but they have a good chance to top that.  10-14" looks likely wherever the convective bands setup and pivot.  

EDIT:  Latest RAP shows 1.1" here through noon tomorrow, with heavy snow still falling.  Noice.

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36 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah it has been sort of a strange day, as it felt pretty nice outside with the warm late March sun despite the breezy east winds.  Definitely didn't have the feel that a big snowstorm was incoming.  100 years ago you would have no idea about what was about to go down.

Encouraged to the see the Euro correct back northeast.  Sort of riding the northeast edge of the heavier amounts here on most of the guidance.  Don't think we'll be in the heaviest axis, but I'm still gonna go bullish and go with 8-10" for here.  I'll go with that for the QC as well, but they have a good chance to top that.  10-14" looks likely wherever the convective bands setup and pivot.  

EDIT:  Latest RAP shows 1.1" here through noon tomorrow, with heavy snow still falling.  Noice.

I hope your area gets crushed, you seem to miss out on the biggies far too often.

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10 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

The hrrr gives over a foot to parts of Iowa by tomorrow around noon with it still snowing

Yeah looking very bullish.  The convective elements with that main surge after 12z looks freakin' sick.  Big question is just how are LSRs gonna play out.  Warm ground and marginal boundary layer temps will play a role, but with the convective snowfall potential that could more than compensate for that where it occurs.  10:1 may be a good baseline to use for areas that get in on the heaviest convective snowfall, with LSRs <8:1 outside of the highest snowfall rates.  If ground and boundary layer temps were more winterlike I'd be on board for 14"+ in that main band.  Latest RAP showing 2" lollies over eastern IA, with precip still ongoing.  

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7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah looking very bullish.  The convective elements with that main surge after 12z looks freakin' sick.  Big question is just how are LSRs gonna play out.  Warm ground and marginal boundary layer temps will play a role, but with the convective snowfall potential that could more than compensate for that where it occurs.  10:1 may be a good baseline to use for areas that get in on the heaviest convective snowfall, with LSRs <8:1 outside of the highest snowfall rates.  If ground and boundary layer temps were more winterlike I'd be on board for 14"+ in that main band.  Latest RAP showing 2" lollies over eastern IA, with precip still ongoing.  

Yeah, as several AFDs have mentioned, would think there’ll be some thundersnow tomorrow, especially out west towards you. Also could be some giant flake sizes. Can’t wait 

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah it has been sort of a strange day, as it felt pretty nice outside with the warm late March sun despite the breezy east winds.  Definitely didn't have the feel that a big snowstorm was incoming.  100 years ago you would have no idea about what was about to go down.

Encouraged to the see the Euro correct back northeast.  Sort of riding the northeast edge of the heavier amounts here on most of the guidance.  Don't think we'll be in the heaviest axis, but I'm still gonna go bullish and go with 8-10" for here.  I'll go with that for the QC as well, but they have a good chance to top that.  10-14" looks likely wherever the convective bands setup and pivot.  

EDIT:  Latest RAP shows 1.1" here through noon tomorrow, with heavy snow still falling.  Noice.

Hope you and Hawkeye cash in nicely

Meanwhile, I might suggest a virga watch for my area if this is on the right track. 

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