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March 23-24 Winter Storm


Hoosier

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There's the typical model disagreement on exact timing and location, but all in all, reasonable agreement on the idea of there being a potentially significant storm.

The pattern in place at the time suggests that the surface low may have trouble gaining much latitude as it moves across the region, so where it ejects from the Rockies should give a pretty good idea on where it's heading.  As with many late season storms, we may be dealing with marginal surface temps for snow but perhaps just cold enough for a band of significant amounts.  Wind also looks to be a player and there should be a decent gradient between the approaching surface low and high pressure in Canada.  

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11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The LOT afd basically went against the 12z suite and says rain event on Saturday.  I guess we'll see if that thinking changes.

Yep.  Given the time of year, I guess it's reasonable to defer to climo, especially being 4-5 days out.

Over the next 36-48 hours, LOT can adjust if needed. Even if there is a snow band somewhere (which itself is not even a guarantee at this point), it will probably be fairly narrow.  Even if it occurs, you can still forecast "no snow" and have a high likelihood of being correct in a particular location. Just playing the odds right now.

The expected temperature contrast is wild...with 80s in MO and 30s in N IL.  Maybe that will lead to some unexpected outcomes. 

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1 hour ago, mimillman said:

Euro shifted the main band south. Someone in the sub form is going to see something from this, just have to give it time to sort out.

Perhaps the recent runs are biasing me a bit, but at this point I think this either is a significant hit for us or we end up on the northern periphery.  The high pressure will help to drain in cold/dry air and it's hard for me to believe we see a huge lurch northward (say more than 100 miles from the Euro position) unless the models are completely mishandling the disturbance that will be responsible.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Perhaps the recent runs are biasing me a bit, but at this point I think this either is a significant hit for us or we end up on the northern periphery.  The high pressure will help to drain in cold/dry air and it's hard for me to believe we see a huge lurch northward (say more than 100 miles from the Euro position) unless the models are completely mishandling the disturbance that will be responsible.

Tell that to the NYC crew 96 hours ago :P

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