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Typhoon Tip

Confidence increases for coastal storm threat along Eastern Seaboard

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Substantial .. in fact, outstanding individual GEF ensemble member support for a negative tilt to eventual closure at mid levels to evolve from the TV to the BM in the 500 mb. 

Meanwhile from the other more dependable/traditional model cluster, the EPS blend has been more amplified and suggestive of potential quite consistently for the last two days.  The Euro has a known seaward bias ...typically correctable toward the west from middle ranges into shorter ranges, as has been purported on more than a single occasion by NCEP/WPC discussion content over the last several months. This is a prime candidate for said correction, and this 12z run this morning sold me pretty hard on the idea - I don't believe the trend is finished yet, either. I suspect from here on out we'll less frequent distracting solutions - from all of the models for that matter - and more so in favor/coalesce around at least a moderate impact, more pervasive/classic kind of I-95 (DCA-PWM) evolution.

Also, the teleconnection from that GEFs camp has, as of last night introduced intriguing signal from the PNA that was not there in previous cycles. Meanwhile, the NAO is entering a rising mode change through this week, which will offer storm track corrections closer to the coast.  A subtle rise in the PNA appears to transmit at least a transient, well timed western conus ridge rollout through the west... We have multiple signals converging here.

Notables:

 -- The mid levels closing off and collocating with the 700 mb sets up at least a transient deep layer easterly anomaly in the troposphere, which climatologically usually connotes an impressive transport, and with nascent and still impressive late season cold sourcing/polar high pressure parked quintessentially over eastern Ontario, these are two impressive leading/identifiable factors meaningful results (to put it nicely..)

--  Unlike previous events, this is a slow mover. The last system was slow'ish, but still moved by.. This guy appear to be moving more at the planetary wave translation speed as opposes to S/W move through the flow at faster speeds. 

 

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Of course ... the 18z GFS goes out of it's way to make this a progressive system that does not actually move slowly...  I see the Euro/Ukmet and the EPS as taking nearly 24 hours to clear our quadrant as more telling...

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8 minutes ago, snowdazed said:

This would be for Wednesday PM-Night (at least in RI), correct?

Most likely but the euro suite was starting it earlier. Like Wednesday morning or even predawn. 

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1 hour ago, snowdazed said:

Yeesh.  Local mets are still calling it a miss.

It def could still miss but I would be telling people that a hit is very much still on the table. 

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1 hour ago, snowdazed said:

Yeesh.  Local mets are still calling it a miss.

Yeah they will be calling for a miss until the EURO and every model agrees on a potential major hit

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Probably a smart move.

Yeah probably, but the 12z EURO was way further amped then the previous runs.  I suppose the EURO would be between a NAM and GFS track as of their 18z runs today

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It’s coming. along the immediate coast, be fearful of precip type as the confluence in se canada can be very easily shattered if the multiple vorts consolidate ala nam. Plus the block is transitioning from - to +. This could hug.

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s coming. along the immediate coast, be fearful of precip type as the confluence in se canada can be very easily shattered if the multiple vorts consolidate ala nam. Plus the block is transitioning from - to +. This could hug.

If this does hit here, I fully expect sleet/rain at times. But could definitely accumulate in the morning and overnight as well as times of heavy rates. My greenhouse, without any heating unit running had a temperature of 74 degrees this afternoon.

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58 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Probably a smart move.

It’s irresponsible to not at least mention that it could hit.

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23 minutes ago, Weenie said:

What is a KU storm?

Kangaroo Upset. It's a reference to when the former Los Angeles Kangaroos beat the Seattle Mariners in a surprise upset game. So in this circumstance, it refers to a strong system overcoming climatological factors to produce large amounts of snow. 

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Juicy h5 look on nam. That initial wave is bye bye allowing the second to tilt the trough favorably now....oh o.

**** streak is real.

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5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The confluence is much stronger to the NE than it was at 18z, will probably end up further south this run....

Good call.

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Razor sharp cutoff to the precip on the NW side,  But hey, Whats a 400+mi shift east in one run on the Nam....................:lol:

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

SE Mass special on that run.

That confluence means business. Not only can it force the system way south, it can also create a razor sharp cutoff in the precip shield.

If that trends stronger, game over for anything meaningful. 

And if it’s weaker? 

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