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Typhoon Tip

Confidence increases for coastal storm threat along Eastern Seaboard

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It really doesn’t look much better to me. Maybe a little. Overall... still looks really really meh.

Kind If surprised it wasn’t better honestly. I’m sure the lack of improvement here will cast further doubt on forecasts tomorrow morning.

Were at the point now where it’s either going to be right or go down in flames.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro looks somewhat better to me, so far..

By a hair, nothing really striking to me.

Euro-trash.

Still tossed. I thought I'd never utter those words but it is in utter disagreement and a complete outlier. 

Everything looks a hair bumped up NW, mid levels, RH, qpf etc, but nothing more than noise honestly. It would argue to take down WSWs everywhere pretty much except extreme S and SE coast. 

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This is quite amazing to me in 2018. We're dealing with huge disagreement right up till go time. It's a red flag for sure, but not something i am currently factoring into any forecast.

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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

By a hair, nothing really striking to me.

Euro-trash.

Still tossed. I thought I'd never utter those words but it is in utter disagreement and a complete outlier. 

Everything looks a hair bumped up NW, mid levels, RH, qpf etc, but nothing more than noise honestly. It would argue to take down WSWs everywhere pretty much except extreme S and SE coast. 

I would not argue taking down WSW.

Feel good about my call...hair north of EURO.

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Welp that was fun, glad i stayed up for nothing except to be given the middle finger by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts.

On a positive note the deep thruster and Jerry's favorite RPM (latest 3Z) are pretty nice. xxxmgWeb_WRF_20180321-000000_ANEUS_EMPAS_F01400000_PgeneralTotalPrecip_R15km.jpg.d544335c29eb09d2136723846a2dc37a.jpgxxxmgWeb_WRF_20180321-030000_ANE_ECONUS_F00720000_PgeneralTotalPrecip_R12km.png.b0996d39f3f84e6100478a361c39f4e1.png

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Feeling better about leaning conservative in Boston area, told co-workers 4-8" in the face of official email hysteria

Feel really bad for forecasters down in Philly area, a really tough forecast down there and rug might be yanked overnight

Gnite all

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Wow...that is wild about the euro. It actually got some snow up here though versus 12z even thouh it’s still paltry in SNE. A little SE shift on the 6z GFS.

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GFS just came in really dry. About a 6 to 10 for Southern CT RI and SE Mass south of Boston. RGEM looks the same with the cut back but slightly further north and wetter. 8 to 12 same spots.

NAM still looks good. 10 to 15

We are getting herpies now and so so it still looks strong.

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