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Typhoon Tip

Confidence increases for coastal storm threat along Eastern Seaboard

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pickles buys it. It’s going down badly 

I believe its overdone.

I like 3-6" 128 into s nh

5-10 Bos/se mass / ri (nw of uuu)

6-12 Gimxy to you to Hfd / lichfield Cty (Less N)

8-15 From 95 to 20 miles inland (ct)

 

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is such an ugly forecast. The conflicting model trends...not just the solutions themselves. 

I still think a decent amount of SNE is going to be in a favorable banding spot at some point during the storm. Hoping that 00z provides some model convergence.  

Agreed.

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro was awful on the SE convection like we mentioned. Compare it to what is reality. It’s why it was so flat 

I hear ya... but not sure how to extrapolate that better SE convection. On the one hand, we know it can pump up downstream heights. On the other hand, multiple mini surface lows get spit further out east and disrupt the tight mechanics we would have otherwise.

In fact, if you trend 0z-->12z Euro and 6z-->12z-->18z 12k NAM, that southeast convection has improved with every run, but the outcomes up here have been worse.

We'll see. Another nail-biter in a month full of them.

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1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

I hear ya... but not sure how to extrapolate that better SE convection. On the one hand, we know it can pump up downstream heights. On the other hand, multiple mini surface lows get spit further out east and disrupt the tight mechanics we would have otherwise.

In fact, if you trend 0z-->12z Euro and 6z-->12z-->18z 12k NAM, that southeast convection has improved with every run, but the outcomes up here have been worse.

We'll see. Another nail-biter in a month full of them.

Probably going to end up as its always looked...moderate event.

If this thing weren't skunked up here, there would be an enormous gradient with that confluence....won't be as drastic now because amounts won't be insane.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably going to end up as its always looked...moderate event.

If this thing weren't skunked up here, there would be an enormous gradient with that confluence....won't be as drastic now because amounts won't be insane.

Has the confluence increased in modeling today

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8 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I hear ya... but not sure how to extrapolate that better SE convection. On the one hand, we know it can pump up downstream heights. On the other hand, multiple mini surface lows get spit further out east and disrupt the tight mechanics we would have otherwise.

In fact, if you trend 0z-->12z Euro and 6z-->12z-->18z 12k NAM, that southeast convection has improved with every run, but the outcomes up here have been worse.

We'll see. Another nail-biter in a month full of them.

 I feel like the storm off NJ/SNE now is most critical to how everything evolves and the downstream ridge is able to amplify. 

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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think releasing a final call 18 hours before go time is unreasonable.

Maybe I'm wrong.

It’s a tough forecast esp up there, prob best to hold off and get it right.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably going to end up as its always looked...moderate event.

If this thing weren't skunked up here, there would be an enormous gradient with that confluence....won't be as drastic now because amounts won't be insane.

Agree

Same issues we discussed from the beginning... occludes too far south... lots of confluence to overcome... and a too-many-chefs situation with the first shortwave and multiple surface lows ejecting east... 

Not having the luxury of waiting for 0z tonight, I told co-workers 4-8 in the Boston area, and I'm nervous going against the mass-hysteria work emails, but the Euro/NAM/GFS trends seem clear across 3-4 cycles. I agree with you the 0z Euro last night seems like a good hedge for now. Now watch 0z NAM go Wolf of Wallstreet on us.

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4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

 I feel like the storm off NJ/SNE now is most critical to how everything evolves and the downstream ridge is able to amplify. 

I agree as that seemed to muddle some of the 18z runs. 

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Who are the posters in SW ct / S Central ct

Hothh

Metagraphica 

Wiz? 

Jc-Ct 

Winter wolf

That sw and s ct area usually seems as it's in another world to me

But they are looking like tons of potential 

I am.. I live on the Seymour/oxford line in west central new haven county on Fairfield county line/ also @4seasons in south central near new haven  plus @buildingsciencewx 

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Has the confluence increased in modeling today

Confluence. Confluence. Confluence. Tired of hearing the word, frankly. Confluence is gone by 0z tonight. Confluence was the story for past several days through this afternoon. With confluence out, issue now is how much UL downstream ridging we can manage...

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Who are the posters in SW ct / S Central ct

Hothh

Metagraphica 

Wiz? 

Jc-Ct 

Winter wolf

That sw and s ct area usually seems as it's in another world to me

But they are looking like tons of potential 

Im not SW CT.

 I’m extreme southwest Hartford County..about a mile and a half from the line of extreme northern New Haven county.  Box has me at 8-12, OKX has 12-18 a mile and a half from me. 

 

 

 

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So, when the models obfuscate and contradict, maybe some good old fashioned observing as of yore might prove illustrative:

--Driving east, home from Springfield this evening, noted the north to northwest horizon lined with sunset along a far border of bluish sky. Indication: the high cloud shield is not advancing far north.

--Flags showed the breeze to be out of the north, as opposed to northeast or east

--My arthritic right hip from decades of disc golf torque is not aching as it was prior to our past 3 March, snow-hole under performers.

Conclusion: The National Weather service has been correct to lower expected snow totals in West Central and Western Massachusetts, and might profit from lowering them still further.

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Who are the posters in SW ct / S Central ct

Hothh

Metagraphica 

Wiz? 

Jc-Ct 

Winter wolf

That sw and s ct area usually seems as it's in another world to me

But they are looking like tons of potential 

I live in Ansonia near Woodbridge/Derby line 

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Who are the posters in SW ct / S Central ct

Hothh

Metagraphica 

Wiz? 

Jc-Ct 

Winter wolf

That sw and s ct area usually seems as it's in another world to me

But they are looking like tons of potential 

Me

47 inches so far this season.

9.5 last storm

10 the storm before.

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Who are the posters in SW ct / S Central ct

Hothh

Metagraphica 

Wiz? 

Jc-Ct 

Winter wolf

That sw and s ct area usually seems as it's in another world to me

But they are looking like tons of potential 

Me, Milford CT

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Just catching up. Harpoon beer night at yard house in Dedham. Very good place.

 

Incredible difference in guidance. Literally some models spitting out a few inches and some over a foot.

middle ground as usual? Tough to bet against euro... but it def could be wrong.

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1 hour ago, cut said:

Driving around Trumbull it is amazing at the tree damage that is evident. I think there are a lot of compromised trees as well that may get finished off in this storm.

A tree fell on my house 2 storms ago with the 10 inches.

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