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Confidence increases for coastal storm threat along Eastern Seaboard


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Man 25 miles may make a huge difference...esp in SW/ south central Ct

Places like New Haven to Fairfield and prolly just S of Danbury could have their own private blizzard w massive outages near the shore. Some modeling would indicate 8-12" prior to Boston seeing a flake

Ne mass may see some decent lift after 1am for 4-6 hrs. 

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Who are the posters in SW ct / S Central ct

Hothh

Metagraphica 

Wiz? 

Jc-Ct 

Winter wolf

That sw and s ct area usually seems as it's in another world to me

But they are looking like tons of potential 

Yeah, but keeping expectations in check. Why are you thinking outages? Wet snow? I hope not. So many trees down or leaning around here.

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7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Who are the posters in SW ct / S Central ct

Hothh

Metagraphica 

Wiz? 

Jc-Ct 

Winter wolf

That sw and s ct area usually seems as it's in another world to me

But they are looking like tons of potential 

I'm in the SW CT club as well. The furthest SW point in New England as a matter fact.

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Who are the posters in SW ct / S Central ct

Hothh

Metagraphica 

Wiz? 

Jc-Ct 

Winter wolf

That sw and s ct area usually seems as it's in another world to me

But they are looking like tons of potential 

I'm down here in Newtown, right off of 84... I have only been here since 2015 so I missed all of the biggies prior. I have no complaints though, I came from an area near Dover DE that averaged maybe 15 inches per year...

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4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yeah, but keeping expectations in check. Why are you thinking outages? Wet snow? I hope not. So many trees down or leaning around here.

Driving around Trumbull it is amazing at the tree damage that is evident. I think there are a lot of compromised trees as well that may get finished off in this storm.

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When i actually think about it (.000001%)

Of the time.  SW ct folks aren't all that bad.

They are like the red headed step children of the subforum, just because of their location relative to the populous that posts.

Im really hoping they get spanked silly and get deformed this storm. Maybe some 20: loli's. OKX is dropping back and chucken em, how about a f'n completion!

 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like the euro ate it at 12z. Maybe we see a compromise, but I’m not in on that 2” of slush it has for most of the area. 

Really tough forecast for our area... I don't think the coked out 18z HRPDS run has enough backing at the moment... and hard to ignore steady trends over 3-4 cycles in 3 models including our best guidance arguing against the foot+ scenarios... I think some compromise 4-8/6-10 is about right, but I'll be more confident after the 0z suite.

Fwiw... radar returns (though probably mostly virga with tons of dry air) at 0z are kissing the LI fork and southcoast islands... Euro was much further south

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This is such an ugly forecast. The conflicting model trends...not just the solutions themselves. 

I still think a decent amount of SNE is going to be in a favorable banding spot at some point during the storm. Hoping that 00z provides some model convergence.  

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3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Really tough forecast for our area... I don't think the coked out 18z HRPDS run has enough backing at the moment... and hard to ignore steady trends over 3-4 cycles in 3 models including our best guidance arguing against the foot+ scenarios... I think some compromise 4-8/6-10 is about right, but I'll be more confident after the 0z suite.

Fwiw... radar returns (though probably mostly virga with tons of dry air) at 0z are kissing the LI fork and southcoast islands... Euro was much further south

Euro was awful on the SE convection like we mentioned. Compare it to what is reality. It’s why it was so flat 

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

When i actually think about it (.000001%)

Of the time.  SW ct folks aren't all that bad.

They are like the red headed step children of the subforum, just because of their location relative to the populous that posts.

Im really hoping they get spanked silly and get their's this storm. Maybe some 20: loli's. OKX is dropping back and chucken em, how about a f'n completion

 

We love your city, I actually prefer it with my family over nyc. Your people though....can be obnoxious, especially when the Pats have a parade and they yell, “Yankees suck”. Very odd. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Pickles buys it. It’s going down badly 

I disagree.  I hope I’m wrong, but I think that 12z run is what we wind up with.  

The post you made about convection def is worth watching though. In any case, I think that I will be on the outside looking in. As you posted a couple of days ago, primarily a Pike South event

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

When i actually think about it (.000001%)

Of the time.  SW ct folks aren't all that bad.

They are like the red headed step children of the subforum, just because of their location relative to the populous that posts.

Im really hoping they get spanked silly and get deformed this storm. Maybe some 20: loli's. OKX is dropping back and chucken em, how about a f'n completion!

 

I don't think we've had a 20 spot IMBY since 2013.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is such an ugly forecast. The conflicting model trends...not just the solutions themselves. 

I still think a decent amount of SNE is going to be in a favorable banding spot at some point during the storm. Hoping that 00z provides some model convergence.  

Sure is. I just posted this on my professional Facebook page. 

Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan added 3 new photos.

6 mins · 

This is one of the hardest forecasts prior to a storm I can remember. This afternoon our most reliable models, the European, pulled the rug out from under the storm keeping the low to the south and leaving very dry air in place over Connecticut. The European has 1" of snow at Bradley and 4" of snow in New Haven.

The European Ensembles agree! The European model is run 50 different times as lower resolution with slightly different tweaks to produce a range of possible solutions. The odds of >3" of snow on the Euro Ensembles are VERY low - only about 1 in 5 in Hartford and 50% in southeastern Connecticut.

The new GFS and the new NAM, on the other hand, are extremely bullish with widespread amounts over a foot. All of these solutions seem plausible for various reasons. I see pros and cons on either either.

I have nodded toward the more bearish European/European Ensembles given their track record. I would be lying if I said I wasn't really surprised when the GFS and NAM with such wildly snow solutions earlier today. Of course, they came out after I changed our snow map this afternoon - daylight saving time kills us!

So, bottom line, be prepared for additional changes. I know people will be annoyed and I'm sure the Facebook haters will be out in droves 1f642.png:)This is a really tough call!

gfs.png

eps1.png

euro1.png

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