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Confidence increases for coastal storm threat along Eastern Seaboard


Typhoon Tip

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Wizzy with the big balls call, I like it. Lets go kid!

I had to go to Charter at 3:00 and didn't have time to wait around for the Euro so I upped totals after seeing the 12z NAM/GFS. Had I saw the Euro not sure if I would have done that...especially N CT but it seems like the Euro is more of an outlier...? I really liked where the 700 and 500 lows closed off too. 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If there was no convection we’d be looking at flurries around the pike with 2-4 in CT which is what the Euro missed. The Mesos have the convection as does the goofus which is why they roared everything way up. 00z Euro will have a massive uptick for the queens tonight and it’ll be the usual..what’s wrong with that model 

sounds like Jan 2016, it took it until 00z the night before (while NYC already was snowing with several inches otg) before it made a sig bump north. 

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1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

I have no idea what to expect with this storm. 

The EPS and Euro is just so atrociously snowless but other signs are so big. 

Are they?

I'm seeing a system with middling mid level power/mechanic strength working against it's self, which is mitigating it further - how?  intra wave spacing issues.  It's got a reasonable total coherent structure, but there are small cuts/irregularities in these jet structures and I suspect they are interfering ...and it's then in turn sort of stopping the feedback processes. The sfc waves peeling off and spitting seaward aren't helping (in the models that is..)

I've sort of thought of this as a moderate impact all along - seems the atmosphere is trying to make that right whether I was right for that insight or not.  Seriously though, this has had weight for days in the ensembles by members, but not really by strength therein. They all had pallid looks, though were agreeing "something" would be here in the east.  I joked that it looked more like a trough place-holder that was missing it's guts earlier this week - ...maybe foreboding.  interesting

Hell, maybe now-casting will expose the models as just not being able to handle this?  Already it seems a tall order with like 5 whirls out there being managed by some of these meso models.

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

idk if I can just toss two straight runs like that of the euro. I wouldn’t change the forecast, but i’d be ready to jump ship after the nam and gfs tonight. 

you find the double qpf max (two diff shortwaves separated a day apart) around the northern Mid Atlantic odd at all? Experience says that just doesn’t tend to happen. And physically, meteorologically speaking there’s reasons why we don’t see this happen in reality...I’m wondering if the euro may have had a better handle down there versus guidance but effed up royally up here...

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43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If there was no convection we’d be looking at flurries around the pike with 2-4 in CT which is what the Euro missed. The Mesos have the convection as does the goofus which is why they roared everything way up. 00z Euro will have a massive uptick for the queens tonight and it’ll be the usual..what’s wrong with that model 

And the usual , "the euro did fine"

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Are they?

I'm seeing a system with middling mid level power/mechanic strength working against it's self, which is mitigating it further - how?  intra wave spacing issues.  It's got a reasonable total coherent structure, but there are small cuts/irregularities in these jet structures and I suspect they are interfering ...and it's then in turn sort of stopping the feedback processes. The sfc waves peeling off and spitting seaward aren't helping (in the models that is..)

I've sort of thought of this as a moderate impact all along - seems the atmosphere is trying to make that right whether I was right for that insight or not.  Seriously though, this has had weight for days in the ensembles by members, but not really by strength therein. They all had pallid looks, though were agreeing "something" would be here in the east.  I joked that it looked more like a trough place-holder that was missing it's guts earlier this week - ...maybe foreboding.  interesting

Hell, maybe now-casting will expose the models as just not being able to handle this?  Already it seems a tall order with like 5 whirls out there being managed by some of these meso models.

Agree....but also not buying the whiff that some guidance is implying.

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