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Confidence increases for coastal storm threat along Eastern Seaboard


Typhoon Tip

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He had a very very rough gfs pbp yesterday so I knew then this will be tough on him. Even the greats can be thrown for a loop....weather forecasting is humbling. 

Sure is. Even if you had some yottaflop supercomputer sampling the atmosphere down to the centimeter, you'd still have forecast errors as random quantum fluctuations manifest at the classical level. Simply isn't possible to model the atmosphere exactly. 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

My advice to you and all mets is to toss Euro data and take em up. 18z stuff definitely ingested some new data..and it's likely due to the convection off the SE coast..which is helping to pump heights and bring it north 

I don't know if I can take totals up any more than I already have them lol. 

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41 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

No idea what schools will do, especially tomorrow. maybe early dismissal?

West Hartford regular dismissal on Wednesdays is 1:30 anyway so I don’t think they’ll call early dismissal.....especially since we’ve had 7 days cancelled already and they will be under tremendous pressure not to cancel two days in a row....I believe Thursday will be cancelled

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

My advice to you and all mets is to toss Euro data and take em up. 18z stuff definitely ingested some new data..and it's likely due to the convection off the SE coast..which is helping to pump heights and bring it north 

That's the card I'm playing. Lots of convection hopefully translates to more tucked and juicier.

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Can't get anything for DXR but I sort of really like where we sit. I think we should get smoked pretty good. I just hope if there is thundersnow this time it happens here. 

I'm still worried about the 1" in New Milford and 15" in Westport deal with 84 getting a few inches....

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Just now, Hoth said:

That's the card I'm playing. Lots of convection hopefully translates to more tucked and juicier.

If there was no convection we’d be looking at flurries around the pike with 2-4 in CT which is what the Euro missed. The Mesos have the convection as does the goofus which is why they roared everything way up. 00z Euro will have a massive uptick for the queens tonight and it’ll be the usual..what’s wrong with that model 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

If there was no convection we’d be looking at flurries around the pike with 2-4 in CT which is what the Euro missed. The Mesos have the convection as does the goofus which is why they roared everything way up. 00z Euro will have a massive uptick for the queens tonight and it’ll be the usual..what’s wrong with that model 

I agree with you. Tossing that EURO run.

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Is your map the same as yesterday?

 

I’ll take that HRDPS MAP please.  

 

4 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Is that a black hole sucking up all the snow in the CT river valley? 

The NAM NST looked like it might have some subsidence between the two bands. 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh I didn’t see your map

This is the map I made around noon

5ab192bdb7d80_2ndcallmap.jpg.be11058baae8d4c83174cf0024f06349.jpg

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