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Confidence increases for coastal storm threat along Eastern Seaboard


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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Don’t expect you too. I just dont know how or why that would translate up here.

the euro is hard to ignore. People can toss it at their own risk.

It translates for peeps closer to nyc. not tossing euro, we discuss and analyze...and not throw our hands up in disgust because some models dont throw 1” qpf over us. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Wow, RGEM is a huge hit looking at black and white...that's weenie band central for SNE.

 

This threat is all over the place.

I sold the 12z euro qpf today. The mid level low track should hug the coast up to NNE and we should see a lot more banding up here than the qpf being advertised on that run. This whole setup is anaomalous and the convective feedbacks are likely throwing the globals off. Being we are officially into spring it would be appropriate to begin giving more weight to the mesos. To my mind if the NAM has a wheelhouse—large Cut-off lows in the mid latitudes during met spring would be it...

I’m not buying the suppression idea imby. Got up to the low 40’s today,  and altostratus are already overhead and the low level CAD winds are nonexistent.

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I'm going to play the weenie "strong convection is going to pump the heights" card down here. This gradient reminds me of Jan '16, which wound up edging north as the event arrived. Even Boston went from sniffing cirrus to a quick 6-8". Don't like seeing the Euro go the way it did, though. I just hope this doesn't end up like Feb '10.

Also, some very impressive convection this afternoon down in SC, GA, FL. 

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Finally was able to get the board to load and catching up.  Glad it has been a no go up here from the get go. 18Z GFS will be interesting to see if it follows the Euro and 12KM NAM.  Glad to hear the  3KM NAM is more robust for New England

As far as the board overload goes  there must be way in extreme weather situations to keep the board functioning smoothly. Some type of threshold the mods could inact?  No guests.   Limit to a certain amount of postings unless you have a Met tag or are a seasoned poster,  no attachments etc. etc.   There has to be a way to stay connected if the board goes down?

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Finally was able to get the board to load and catching up.  Glad it has been a no go up here from the get go. 18Z GFS will be interesting to see if it follows the Euro and 12KM NAM.  Glad to hear the  3KM NAM is more robust for New England

 

Same here, even though there was a run or two of teases. Gives a peaceful easy feeling when you know you are out of it. 

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Yeah 200 decibels.

Jeff, just so you know, I wasn’t meaning today’s 12z cutback (cuz ya, that was 200 decibels).  I was meaning the cutback from yesterday’s Euro 0z, to yesterday’s 12z here...which Was almost nothing here...that’s what I meant was noise, not today’s.

 

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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wow, RGEM is a huge hit looking at black and white...that's weenie band central for SNE.

 

This threat is all over the place.

But a lot of them this year have been just like this right up to go time...why is that? 

literallly have one model giving my are 20 inches, and another giving me 2 inches. Bizarre! 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

But a lot of them this year have been just like this right up to go time...why is that? 

literallly have one model giving my are 20 inches, and another giving me 2 inches. Bizarre! 

This one feels worse than the others. We'll see if some consolidation at 00z happens.

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Storm is a bit of a hot mess. Too many cooks in the kitchen robbing each other of dough. The most southern lows blows its load in the mid Atlantic region. The northern extent is an elongated low pressure. Hard to get much out of this setup unless A: it's wrong. Or B: the storm congeals itself into one entity in short order. We'll see.

 

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