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Confidence increases for coastal storm threat along Eastern Seaboard


Typhoon Tip

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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d go a pretty uniform 4-8”... if everything breaks right maybe someone hits 10”... prob in SW CT.

18z trends weren’t great... def some issues with this.

Like many have mentioned, should be a good late season event if expectations are kept in check.

How can a single data point constitute a trend? 

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5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

How can a single data point constitute a trend? 

Should have said “ look at 18z”

It just kind of revealed some issues that have been mentioned over the last few days of things that could happen given it it’s an aging system that most likely has maxed out by the time it reaches most of the region.

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Should have said “ look at 18z”

It just kind of revealed some issues that have been mentioned over the last few days of things that could happen given it it’s an aging system that most likely has maxed out by the time it reaches most of the region.

I dare you to elaborate on that.

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44 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

How can a black hole emit radiation?

Well, it's been a very long time since I've done any QFT, but my recollection is that you have spontaneous virtual particle pairs that normally annihilate each other except when they happen to be on opposite sides of the black hole's event horizon. One escapes, the other falls in, and to conserve energy the black hole makes up the deficit by losing mass and emitting Hawking radiation, which looks like thermal radiation with wavelength equal to the BH's Schwartzchild radius. 

BTW, I do understand what you were actually driving at. I just felt a little didactic.

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3 hours ago, JC-CT said:

i swear to god if i end up too far east of the mid levels again...then i will pout and do nothing about it

You may end up to far west for anything................:lol:

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

May have to cut down in ME a bit...

Definitely, Take them down.

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

Of course they do because they have the most snow for you.

Beware a 50 mile wobble south. Suddenly everything becomes awfully meh. 

Yup, buyer beware, The sharp cut off to the NW is going to disappoint if this slips east.

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8 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Well, it's been a very long time since I've done any QFT, but my recollection is that you have spontaneous virtual particle pairs that normally annihilate each other except when they happen to be on opposite sides of the black hole's event horizon. One escapes, the other falls in, and to conserve energy the black hole makes up the deficit by losing mass and emitting Hawking radiation, which looks like thermal radiation with wavelength equal to the BH's Schwartzchild radius. 

 

Impressive!

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I've watched many this season trend NW towards big hits only to pull far enough E inside of 24 hours to leave me with advisory snows.

I've got lucky this season on that as i have had rare wiggle room either way, But anytime we have confluence to the north, That's not good here so i have been on the meh train for this one, I only care if it snows in the foothills or mountains now, Still a ton of snow up there so i'm good.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hey you could be right and SNE gets nothing. But me thinks NAM is not gonna be right 

I didn't say SNE was getting nothing, But the cut off west is real, I think the eastern areas are certainly in play, The lead wave is the key to better snows back further west as long as it remains some what weak, This is going to be one of those storms that most will say the radar looks like sh it because of the banding nature, Just looks to be one for the Mid Atlantic this go round especially PA.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The second s/w was a bit weaker on the gfs and the **** streak in Maine a bit stronger. But those are trends that can change at 00z too.

Sure it can, Still there is a ceiling to this one with the two lows, Your robbing peter to pay paul so to speak, Just couldn't get the lead wave to go away.

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