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Confidence increases for coastal storm threat along Eastern Seaboard


Typhoon Tip

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29 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Scott/Will/Others... any thoughts on road conditions Wednesday afternoon? I have a feeling models are warming up 2m temps too quickly during the day. Thoughts? 

All about rates. But I can’t imagine how most of CT does not have a big impact on roads with antecedent airmass and temps in 20s. 

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Tho I wasn't asked specifically ... it's all about thresholds. 

In the mid winter times, during the perennial solar minimum ... snow accumulation in the roads at our latitude is almost entirely guided by fall rates.  

At the book ends, ...the temp part of that drops and if sufficiently cold, in situ temperatures will combine with fall rates and accumulate in the roads.  

I have seen blowing snow off the eaves of flat roof tops at 1 pm while parked in front of a strip mall as late as April 11, and that day ...there was snow and traffic-ruts in the streets. But, it was in the low 20s and snowed much pre-dawn leading with no direct sun penetrating cloud during the morning.    Just based on personal experience, if what the Euro and NAM blend (as WPC is also accepting..) is taken, there's no way this particular event's boundary layer will run into issue accumulating on the roads ... 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still sane limitations RE occlusion and lead sw robbing WAA, etc?

Yes...though it is sort of trying to reestablish some WAA before we get mostly CCB/deformation snows. But that lead wave prob prevents this from ultimately being a monster storm for us.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Looks like a bit of asucker hole as the storm is trying to redevelop as it moves further east underneath the confluence.  Seeing that show up on modeling today.

Noticed that too. Seems plenty cold at least. 925s don't get past ACK. 850s flirt with extreme south coast for a few hours

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8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

The Euro weenie map has a striking resemblance to that one. I would be surprised if this wasn't the highest NESIS storm of the year because of that.

Yeah, the confluence is similar. That one had a razor sharp cutoff north of Boston. I seem to remember Tip posting about a beautiful sunset in Ayer while it was ripping in Cambridge. 

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