Indystorm Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 It must be March Madness. Surprised no one is following what might occur later today from DFW eastward. Although SPC has conditional caveats there is a slight risk with 5% tor and 15% hatched hail possible eastward from the metro. Refinements expected by 2000Z update. Elevated t storms now ongoing in sw OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Agreed, 16Z HRRR wants to put a big supercell right through the heart of the DFW area. Just waiting to see what the 17Z run says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Lack of activity during winter has probably caused more than a few to lose interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, cheese007 said: Lack of activity during winter has probably caused more than a few to lose interest Two days till astro spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 Mesoscale Discussion 0133 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Areas affected...Western north Texas and far southwest/south-central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181933Z - 182130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of western north Texas and far southwest Oklahoma over the next several hours. Any thunderstorm that develops should move generally east toward the I-35 corridor, posing a risk for large hail and strong winds, although a tornado or two will be possible with any sustained thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery indicates thinning/clearing clouds across western north Texas in the wake of morning clouds/precipitation. Strong heating in the wake of the clouds has allowed for cumulus development on the dryline near its intersection with a weak surface front that extends northeast into southern Oklahoma. Additional cumulus development is noted along the aforementioned surface front as far northeast as far southwest Oklahoma. Current indications are that afternoon insolation will combine with continued low-level moistening to allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop out of these increasingly agitated cumulus fields over the next several hours. Steep/steepening midlevel-lapse rates will support most-unstable CAPE ranging from 1000-2500 J/kg at the same time a strong mid-level jet moves across the region supporting effective-layer shear on the order of 50-70 knots. This environment will support a supercell threat with any thunderstorm that can develop and become sustained. Large hail and strong winds will be the primary threats initially. The tornado threat will slowly increase this evening as the low-level jet increases and storms move east into the better low-level moisture. ..Marsh/Guyer.. 03/18/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Some changes to the risk area with the latest update. Sig hail risk shifted a bit south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Sun is out in Richardson. Now we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 Storms forming now east of Austin with first svr warning of this episode. That svr cell blew up very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 Severe storm watch issued for TX from DFW metro area eastward till ll p.m. CDT. primarily for large hail and 70 mph wind. Thank the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 Lapse rates better than 7 and nice CAPE of 2500 to 3000 along with good shear in the area covered by the svr storm watch in TX. Clouds thinning nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I'm wondering if there might be the potential for storm formation to the northwest of the current cells located around Lake Whitney. Nothing seems to indicate so at this time, but the ingredients (EHI, supercell composites, along with somewhat higher helicity, though helicity is still marginal) are in place just behind where the current storms are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Tornado warning for Bosque and Hill counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 Baseball size hail reported at Caldwell TX. Should impact College Station shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 SPC with another terrible performance in progress.12z guidance suggested a threat extending much further south. They did expand the risk earlier, but not nearly enough. And oh look, earlier guidance was right and they’re out of the loop once again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: SPC with another terrible performance in progress. 12z guidance suggested a threat extending much further south. They did expand the risk earlier, but not nearly enough. And oh look, earlier guidance was right and they’re out of the loop once again. Agreed. Plus there is even a severe thunderstorm ongoing even south of the general thunder area in South Texas. I'm still not ruling out the northern part of the slight risk until I see evidence that there won't be storm initiation, though. HRRR doesn't say storms will initiate, but you never know with that dryline and what appears to be a triple point west of DFW, plus the main area of low pressure is still off to the (north)west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 But as Chicago Storm points out our present storms are a far cry from the Red River/TX/OK border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 11 minutes ago, Indystorm said: But as Chicago Storm points out our present storms are a far cry from the Red River/TX/OK border. Exactly. Bad call on SPC's part, but sometimes the cap breaks where you don't expect it to. It just doesn't want to break over the outlined area I guess (that's good news for DFW though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 629 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... SOUTH CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... WEST CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 715 PM CDT. * AT 626 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HUNTSVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING BASEBALL TO SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL. RADAR INDICATES THAT STRONG INFLOW INTO THE STORM COULD EASILY EXCEED 70 MPH IN GUST. PERSONS IN AND AROUND THE SAM HOUSTON NATIONAL FOREST AND INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR THROUGH WALKER COUNTY NEED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE SHELTER! THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HUNTSVILLE, TRINITY, POINT BLANK, RIVERSIDE, SEBASTOPOL, CRABBS PRAIRIE AND OAKHURST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Ouch! Three inch hail at College Station TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Two tornado warnings between Center and San Augustine right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Likely tornado ongoing right now South of Shreveport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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