Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,341
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    snow01
    Newest Member
    snow01
    Joined
stormtracker

March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Inside the UHI will never jackpot this time of year.  Its pretty much impossible.  Even if precip didnt make it NW then areas just outside the city with some elevation (hilly areas) would be the jackpot.  The cities are built near sea level and with the heat island built in and time of year where temps matter a LOT someone outside the city will do better here.  That is baked in and cant change.  But again that doesn't mean the cities can do well just someone is going to jackpot and it wont be inside either beltway most likely. 

Yeah I can understand the difference between YOUR yard and mine...but not so much Bob's yard (or D.C.) and mine. Like how sometimes Balt. City does better than D.C...Is it latitude? A further north UHI versus one further south? Lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Inside the UHI will never jackpot this time of year.  Its pretty much impossible.  Even if precip didnt make it NW then areas just outside the city with some elevation (hilly areas) would be the jackpot.  The cities are built near sea level and with the heat island built in and time of year where temps matter a LOT someone outside the city will do better here.  That is baked in and cant change.  But again that doesn't mean the cities can do well just someone is going to jackpot and it wont be inside either beltway most likely. 

Exactly.  Anyone hoping the cities/metro areas jackpot (relative to other areas) from this event isn't being realistic.  That said, there's a difference between hoping to be in the jackpot region, and hoping for something very good even if it's not the highest stripe of snow.  You don't have to be in the max area to still score well; warning criteria would be fantastic where I'm at.  I think too many were spoiled by that run or two of the Euro that put nearly 20" cold powder through the I-95 corridor.  Despite Ji thinking he had 22" of digital snow stolen from him!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, THG said:

This has me getting in onto the action. Is that a 30 mm or so equivalent for me i see?

Where are you located?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I can understand the difference between YOUR yard and mine...but not so much Bob's yard (or D.C.) and mine. Like how sometimes Balt. City does better than D.C...Is it latitude? A further north UHI versus one further south? Lol

In late March little things mean a lot. A few hundred feet of elevation, latitude, longitude, and even how developed the land is. I live ne of rockville in a very wooded area at just under 400'. I'll always do better than in town but Olney almost always does better than me because of elevation and latitude. In marginal events my yard falls in between the big winners and losers like 90% of the time. Could something break my way and let me beat areas that normally win? Sure, but that's a low odds proposition. I need to root for Olney to get destroyed so I can come in a close second behind them.

If you live inside of 695 in an urban area then don't expect to beat Timonium or Parkville or wherever nearby. This late in the year has little factors that add up. In Jan when it's 15 degrees outside it doesn't matter. Whomever gets under the best lift wins. In late March concrete and trees and hills and all that stuff makes a noticeable difference 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, THG said:

This has me getting in onto the action. Is that a 30 mm or so equivalent for me i see?

It's not a good idea to ask too many questions about your own backyard. You know where you live and models aren't going to precisely nail down the fine details at this range, or perhaps ever. Being in Bel Air, you're probably in the same boat as me and other semi-northern MD people. We've got a decent shot at a solid event, but it's far from a sure thing, especially since we're now in the latter part of March. The true northern people near the M/D line (psuhoffman, Highstakes, and some others) usually have the best chances of scoring and are least likely to have issues with mixing, and it's all because of climo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are too many details to work out still to know how much snow will fall where. 

Lets limit the “how much for MBY” stuff.  

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I can understand the difference between YOUR yard and mine...but not so much Bob's yard (or D.C.) and mine. Like how sometimes Balt. City does better than D.C...Is it latitude? A further north UHI versus one further south? Lol

Sometimes latitude matters. Sometimes a warm nose or dry slot can creep up to DC or southern Moco while Baltimore is better off. There are so many different ways a storm can play out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

 

"DO NOT let the March sun angle fool you.Richmond was a prime example with the last system"

Hm....What's Richmond's elevation? (is it a UHI or just a town?) Just thought I'd highlight that since we're talking about March climo snow accumulations...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m liking where I am in ellicott city for these storms! Away from the city but close enough for the QPF. Expect Olney to Howard country to northern Baltimore and Carroll counties to do the best. 

 

Its March. Baltimore and dc May see 1+ qpf and only half stick. Best chance is if the bulk of precip comes after dark Wednesday.  Not looking like it. I hope people in central va aren’t fooled by the clown maps. 850s will kill them. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, H2O said:

There are too many details to work out still to know how much snow will fall where. 

Lets limit the “how much for MBY” stuff.  

Yea, we all have access to the same stuff and what isnt free gets posted anyway. Everyone needs to make their own call. It's really not that hard.

We're still 72 hours out from the end of the event too. Nobody can say with any certainty how it all works out. This isn't a cut and dried deal either with multiple pieces moving through over several days. The closer you live to the cities and south and east the worse off you are. That's all we got. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

"DO NOT let the March sun angle fool you.Richmond was a prime example with the last system"

Hm....What's Richmond's elevation? (is it a UHI or just a town?) Just thought I'd highlight that since we're talking about March climo snow accumulations...

I don't recall seeing much other than grass accumulations there from that.  Not sure what the point of that statement was.

Richmond is 166' and certainly is an UHI.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, mappy said:

Facebook 

It’s not bad but I wonder who made it. Like legit met or hobbyist?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

 

Intersting neighbor.  Bit premature in my opinion for that call whomever made it. Everything still evolving.  Especially the second system part.  We shall see as we are getting close to game time. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I don't recall seeing much other than grass accumulations there from that.  Not sure what the point of that statement was.

Richmond is 166' and certainly is an UHI.

E3CAF1BC-10D3-4B23-8FB7-4AAD9433E00E.thumb.jpeg.745e87f1356099914a5861cdb17792c4.jpegIt covered everything including 64 in spots. Started around 1pm Mon and ended before 6pm. Glen Allen 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Intersting neighbor.  Bit premature in my opinion for that call whomever made it. Everything still evolving.  Especially the second system part.  We shall see as we are getting close to game time. 

I agree, if the author of this map remade it 24 hrs. from now, it would be different. Is that his or her final call?

I would be more comfortable with the idea of more people getting more snow if the HP source of cold air in Canada was closer to Ogdensburg, New York than southern James Bay and the 50/50 was closer to the bench mark rather than 300 miles north.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

In late March little things mean a lot. A few hundred feet of elevation, latitude, longitude, and even how developed the land is. I live ne of rockville in a very wooded area at just under 400'. I'll always do better than in town but Olney almost always does better than me because of elevation and latitude. In marginal events my yard falls in between the big winners and losers like 90% of the time. Could something break my way and let me beat areas that normally win? Sure, but that's a low odds proposition. I need to root for Olney to get destroyed so I can come in a close second behind them.

If you live inside of 695 in an urban area then don't expect to beat Timonium or Parkville or wherever nearby. This late in the year has little factors that add up. In Jan when it's 15 degrees outside it doesn't matter. Whomever gets under the best lift wins. In late March concrete and trees and hills and all that stuff makes a noticeable difference 

I’m at 500’ and have yet to see it fully pay off. Olney seems to get lucky a lot though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I’m at 500’ and have yet to see it fully pay off. Olney seems to get lucky a lot though.

Your area is pretty densely developed so all that asphalt and concrete does make a difference but with that being said there is no doubt over time that gburg does better than my yard. Unfortunately you moved just at the beginning of a really crappy stretch.  If you were here in 13-15 winters there would have been a noticeable difference compared to rockville, Bethesda, silver spring, etc.

Olney is pretty far removed from development and it really helps. It keeps getting better as you drive north on 97. Damascus is a jackpotville of MoCo. I worked in mt airy for 5 years and that 30 miles made a massive difference. I was working there during 12/5/09 and damn I'm glad I was. Double what I had at home. I watched the snow depth drop every like every mile south.

If it makes you feel any better, you'll prob do better than me this week. Lol

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Bob Chill said:

Your area is pretty densely developed so all that asphalt and concrete does make a difference but with that being said there is no doubt over time that gburg does better than my yard. Unfortunately you moved just at the beginning of a really crappy stretch.  If you were here in 13-15 winters there would have been a noticeable difference compared to rockville, Bethesda, silver spring, etc.

Olney is pretty far removed from development and it really helps. It keeps getting better as you drive north on 97. Damascus is a jackpotville of MoCo. I worked in mt airy for 5 years and that 30 miles made a massive difference. I was working there during 12/5/09 and damn I'm glad I was. Double what I had at home. I watched the snow depth drop every like every mile south.

If it makes you feel any better, you'll prob do better than me this week. Lol

Lol. It does, sorry. I'm really hoping I can cash in on being at 500' and catch the right end of a marginal temp event.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×