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March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD


stormtracker

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The initial thump tomorrow looks quite good. Leading edge band so classic for strong frontogenesis and heavy precip. NAM has a pronounced warm tongue so could be a lot of IP in there too. GFS is more of snow, then PLSN combo. After that it appears the DGZ dries out. I wouldn't expect a lot of accumulation near DC as that occurs. Later on tomorrow night as the second s/w moves in, deep lift and Rh redevlop, so snow should begin once again.

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39 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

SREF are crap models, but mean is creeping up...hopefully its a good sign (as it usually is). 

Sref are awful. Some of the members have severe suppression and over amplification issues. But...even if stuff is crap it's still better to see means going the right way not the wrong way. As you get closer even an awful model will get closer to reality. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The initial thump tomorrow looks quite good. Leading edge band so classic for strong frontogenesis and heavy precip. NAM has a pronounced warm tongue so could be a lot of IP in there too. GFS is more of snow, then PLSN combo. After that it appears the DGZ dries out. I wouldn't expect a lot of accumulation near DC as that occurs. Later on tomorrow night as the second s/w moves in, deep lift and Rh redevlop, so snow should begin once again.

Oh man, you know it's good when this guy shows up.  :wub:

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sref are awful. Some of the members have severe suppression and over amplification issues. But...even if stuff is crap it's still better to see means going the right way not the wrong way. As you get closer even an awful model will get closer to reality. 

Yes, I stated this...I wasn't saying use them for any meaningful forecasting...but usually if the mean is high here, it's a good signal.  

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Wave 1 pretty much trending as thought yesterday. Too much warm air flooding in aloft for snow but nice, stout CAA in the PBL, leading to a mostly rain to sleet/ice scenario. Luckily it's during the day and limited in duration, so accretion should be very limited. SW'ly winds aloft (with subsidence) behind the initial batch of frontogenesis and WAA aloft will scour out the ice-crystal bearing layers aloft, leaving moisture and lift confined to mostly below 600mb. That eventually means drizzle and freezing drizzle for a prolonged period until forcing aloft from wave 2 begins to act on the column. Roads could get nasty Tue. night/Wed morning with subfreezing temps, freezing drizzle and heavy rain having washed the roads clear of any salt. Hopefully the relative warmth tomorrow along with 38F 2-inch soil temps delays freezing enough to not cause an issue, but it's going to be close, especially after 12+ hours of subfreezing temps.

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12k NAM sums it up: LP over eastern KY transfers its energy off the coast into a new LP: Which is wave 2. Also, the new LP stalls out or slows real down, until eventually the trough moves east and the confluence moves further North into Canada and the system is allowed to move east.

Wave #1 is probably gonna be too warm for the big I-95 cities like D.C and Balt. Maybe Philly. But this run is a little colder, and that's a good sign, however the NAM has been really jumpy on where to place the precip and way overdoes the snowfall. Doesn't take into the account that the ratios will probably not be 10:1. After that, wave #2 is when the good stuff happens. Temperatures cool down enough for a changeover to snow as the new LP (wave #2, to be specific), which is situated off the OBX, pulls cold air down from the north. Big time snowfall rates if it verifies. That's about it.

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5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Wave 1 pretty much trending as thought yesterday. Too much warm air flooding in aloft for snow but nice, stout CAA in the PBL, leading to a mostly rain to sleet/ice scenario. Luckily it's during the day and limited in duration, so accretion should be very limited.

That's a good point.  Otherwise this could get ugly.

0CCUHt0.gif

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3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah the whole CCB went from our area to philly and NYC, which of course matches up with what happens in reality with these coastal redevelopers a lot of the time.  I'll be more concerned if the Euro/GFS show it. 

Concerned?  about what?  It's snowing Wednesday

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