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stormtracker

March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD

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50 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

We all feel this 

 

I dont follow this dude, but he is hitting at least partly on my concern with how this unfolds. Just too many pieces of energy at h5. The lead wave in the upper levels seems to get stuck over WV, and all the trailing energy gets strung out in a deep, but broad trough. Eventually a coastal low is induced at the surface, but it will probably swing pretty far offshore as it is developing. This is some sort of a hybrid miller B, and I think the latest runs are revealing the "in between" dead zone. Hope I am wrong, but right now I am not thrilled with the look.

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Just now, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said:

00z herp derp looks alot like the RGEM. this ones gonna be exciting! or not!

Um, what?

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13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I dont follow this dude, but he is hitting at least partly on my concern with how this unfolds. Just too many pieces of energy at h5. The lead wave in the upper levels seems to get stuck over WV, and all the trailing energy gets strung out in a deep, but broad trough. Eventually a coastal low is induced at the surface, but it will probably swing pretty far offshore as it is developing. This is some sort of a hybrid miller B, and I think the latest runs are revealing the "in between" dead zone. Hope I am wrong, but right now I am not thrilled with the look.

Agreed. The system started to unravel as modeled once if came onshore the west coast with multiple vorts running loose. The key is how quickly those pieces can gel again as it moves east.  The better model runs have that happening sooner than later.

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I'm not going to make it up for the Euro, but RGEM ensemble mean is the best I've seen it all year.  Below is qpf as snow and total qpf.  Please keep in mind that for many of us ratios will likely be poor for the qpf labeled "snow".

D9c6rtE.png

mVgPwUu.png

 

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Euro is off the Jersey shore at 72hrs well southwest of the GFS and CMC.   North of the NAM by a little.

 

Edit: Also going to Crush NE. 50/50 is phasing further west,  and it's got a strong closed H5 south of Long Island.

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EC is more amped for sure with the second wave, but for us along and east of 95, in this scenario we may be waiting well after 00Z Wed before we'd finally flip to snow (check out that strong easterly 850 flow before the low gets off the coast).

But, this would also spell more CCB snows after 12Z Wed as well. Ratios higher than 5-7 to 1 are tough to get after 14-15Z this time of year around here unless the rates are crazy. Would love for this to play out a good 6 hours earlier ;)

20180319_021535.png

Screenshot_20180319-021434.jpg

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11 minutes ago, Ji said:

We just got named with a slow moving bomb Tuesday night and Wednesday

Except there is about a 14" difference between snowfall and snow depth 

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Except there is about a 14" difference between snowfall and snow depth 
Alot is sleet but if nam is off a degree...but 2 inches liquid!
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I kinda like the rain to sleet to snow aspect. I think it allows the snow to stick faster vs straight rain to snow

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Verbatim, first wave looks like rain for DC proper with heavy snow perhaps 50 miles to the north and west.  Second wave dumps heavy snow from Del Marva into southern New England with light to moderate snow for DC proper

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Just now, rcflyermd68 said:

so which do you  think  is  right  the nam or the  euro just  curious??

 Niether at this point. Still trying to narrow on a solution. 

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23 minutes ago, Ji said:

We just got named with a slow moving bomb Tuesday night and Wednesday

Yeah NAM has a pretty nice CCB like the Euro. Hope the models are locking in on the coastal development/location, because thats the heavy snow producer for most. Much of what falls prior to that is rain/sleet/slop for many. Out your way you will do better with the lead stuff although still probably some sleet.

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Euro verbatim for DC: Rain would begin early Tuesday morning with temperatures near 40.  Surface and 850 hPa temperatures dropping through morning to mid 30s by noon with ~0.5" of rain before letting up in early afternoon.  Light drizzle through the afternoon into the overnight hours with temperatures hovering in low to mid 30s.  850 temperatures plummet overnight with surface temperatures cooperating by morning.  Flurries Wednesday morning changing to moderate snow by mid-morning before ending early evening ~0.4" falls with cooperative temperatures. 

Just one solution. 

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