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March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD


stormtracker

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06z NAM is a different kind of look. Tucked in low close to the coast idea has backed away, tight gradient north of the M/D line, but our area gets absolutely raked with heavy snow. Bullseye right across from 95 to I-81. Easily double digit snows on the 12km. 500 is closed off, deepening, and crossing a textbook location for us. 

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New WSWs up.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
429 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

MDZ003-VAZ028-WVZ051-052-201630-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0018.180320T1000Z-180320T2200Z/
/O.EXB.KLWX.WS.W.0006.180320T1000Z-180321T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0004.180321T0400Z-180322T0000Z/
Washington-Frederick VA-Morgan-Berkeley-
429 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation changing to snow this morning, which
  could be heavy at times. Snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches
  are expected today, along with a light glaze of ice. Additional
  heavy snow is possible late tonight through Wednesday afternoon,
  with additional snow accumulations of 5 or more inches
  possible.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Washington. In Virginia, Frederick. In
  West Virginia, Morgan and Berkeley.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 8 PM EDT this
  evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from late tonight through
  Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest
road conditions for the state you are calling from can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
429 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

MDZ501-502-WVZ050-055-501>504-201630-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0006.180320T0900Z-180321T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0004.180321T0000Z-180321T2100Z/
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Hampshire-
Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-
429 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected today with snow accumulations of 5 to
  10 inches. Additional heavy snow is possible from Tuesday
  evening through Wednesday afternoon, with additional snow
  accumulations of 5 or more inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of western Maryland and eastern West Virginia.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 8 PM EDT this
  evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from this evening through
  Wednesday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest
road conditions for the state you are calling from can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

 

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Just now, arlwx said:

LWX is implying that the mountains get warnings about storm 1 and everyone is on watch for storm 2.

Storm 2 starts in like 20 hrs just issue the warnings already. Plus it’s  going to be a mess after 12pm. Think is really random. 

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Euro for DCA:

Light rain beginning soon changing to moderate rain by sunrise.  On and off rain this morning and into early afternoon with approximately 0.5" by 2 PM.

Wintry mix beginning mid-afternoon and continuing into evening with surface temperatures just above freezing and 850 temperatures falling to just below freezing; approximately 0.6" of total precipitation before changing to light rain or freezing drizzle around 9 PM. 

Snow beginning by 3 AM Wednesday and continuing into early evening.  Surface temperatures near or below freezing until at least mid-afternoon generally in the 30-33 degree range.  850 temperatures well below 0C (-4 to -6 during bulk of precipitation).  1000-500 hPa Thicknesses falling from 541 to 534. ~0.9" of precipitation likely all snow.

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1 hour ago, Snowman. said:

Ferrier from last nights 00z Run

5ab0c9cb5db49_Ferrier00z.thumb.png.d3ed96c298e628f7b518a18230db02a7.png

 

 

Ferrier current 06z run.. Boom

5ab0c9f74cefb_Ferrier06z.thumb.png.ff7293e3ceae46a4e87aace082261101.png

 

That is a pummeling. A bit more falls beyond that frame for eastern areas. Northern NJ went from about 15" to practically nothing in one run lol.

And it looks like Mount Holly weighted heavily the 0z NAMs based off their new expected snowfall map this morning. Something gonna bust, or need adjusting.

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The NAM twins suggest that late afternoon, early evening (rush hour) may be a time to watch for a heavier band of precip to pull northward from roughly DC up to the PA line. At this time we see the leftover energy from the closed low to our west that breaks down rotate through our region. May equate to a quick inch or two of snow and/or a heavier burst of sleet depending on location and temps.

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