BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: NAM is pretty warm upstairs for just about everybody with the initial thump. A ton of ice. Freezing rain too later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, jayyy said: North MoCo/HoCo, Carrol, and points N/NW/NE: 7-9” 10-12” max in usual jackpot elevation areas Baltimore city: 4-6” — 8-9” max with banding and colder temps verifying perfectly. Not likely IMO. Downtown DC: 2-5” - 7” max with good rates and colder temps verifying Northern areas win for one simple reason: Wave 1 accumulation. I think northern Baltimore and Harford County are in a good spot. Colder for wave 1 and far enough east and north with wave 2. I see areas from frederick on west seeing much less QPF from wave 2 if we’re being realistic and not wishcasting based on the snowiest models. I believe we easily overcome climo and that it comes faster than models depict. Which is always the case. Changeover begins 8 am far northwest, and I believe 95 is snow by 2 PM. Rates of .75”+ per hour will accumulate, so let’s cut the March warmth crap it can snow a foot a day after it’s 70 degrees if it snows hard enough be smart people don’t model hug. H5 and 500 mb look good. That's great to put it out so specific. I think there is going to be a jackpot time of 2-3 hours where it would be no better if it Were 1am Maybe some built up cumulus around noon . Observation posts could be a real gas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 0z NAM appears to be east of 18z with the coastal. Also, h5 not closed off at hr 25, was at 18z. Might not mean anything. Just observing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Interior MD has been bullseyed for days. You ole coot you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 NAM might be about to go crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 nam is a little south this run. that should bode well for us once the upper level low slides under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Tenman Johnson said: You ole coot you!! Don’t you miss the old days Howard? I do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: Can anyone help me understand why the NAM 12k is showing rain for everything East of the Loudon/Fairfax line, but shows several inches already on the total snow fall map (I don't see a total snow depth map to compare it to)? The snow map includes sleet, and the microphysics in the model must be indicating sleet. The "rain" comes from the precip type computation which is only based on the wet-bulb temperature profile (i.e. no connection to the microphysics). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 h5 looks amazing on 12k at 35hr. Even better than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NAM is beautiful through 36. Seems to be better "organized" with the precip shield and slightly west of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3k NAM actually gets a burst of snow from the first wave West of the cities. Assuming that's noise with temps aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3km NAM has a changeover in the District by mid afternoon tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 At 39...sets the deform right through all of Maryland and southern Pa....H5 is a great look and we won’t know where that sets up until it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NAM doesn't get snow into the metros until 9Z on the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Still snowing at nightfall on wednesday as the low heads north WEST into NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 0z NAM appears to be east of 18z with the coastal. Also, h5 not closed off at hr 25, was at 18z. Might not mean anything. Just observing. NRN MD gets it pretty good from the deform once the coastal gets cranking. Last run the explosion went too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, high risk said: The snow map includes sleet, and the microphysics in the model must be indicating sleet. The "rain" comes from the precip type computation which is only based on the wet-bulb temperature profile (i.e. no connection to the microphysics). Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: 3km NAM has a changeover in the District by mid afternoon! 2 minutes ago, winterymix said: NAM doesn't get snow into the metros until 9Z on the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Chill! Nam closes h5 over KY then deepens and moves east across VA money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 42-45 Philly and NY get the goods. They are getting raked at that point. Those of us in northern part of the subforum get whacked pretty good with deform as well. On the NAM that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Paltry precip.. looks great for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Honestly, I'm not sure how this can get any better. Every run it just keeps getting better, the opposite of what has happened all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, mattie g said: winterymix is referring to the 12k NAM I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Ummmmm. Did we just get NAM’d? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, mattie g said: I clarified I meant tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Amped said: NRN MD gets it pretty good from the deform once the coastal gets cranking. Last run the explosion went too far north. There's your south trend..lol you were wondering when the north trend would stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: Paltry precip.. looks great for nyc which run are you looking at? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The degree of bad analysis in this STORM THREAD is truly mind-blowing. Folks, if you don't know what you're talking about, please don't post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3k about to throw down with the ull. Setup even better than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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