EastCoast NPZ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Stop it with ground temp talk. We have had significant snowstorms the day after it was 70 before. We have had accumulating snow the last week of march several times. Colorado has the same radiation as us. Denver is at our latitude and they get big snows in early fall when it's been 75 the whole week before and soil temps are above 50*. This is the dumbest thing ever. Knock it off. My brother lives near Denver. It was near 60F there yesterday in early afternoon. By 8 PM (their time) he had 3" on the ground and snowing pretty heavily. All about rates and air temps, (and solar at this time of year) not antecedent ground temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: Tried to like these posts. But in my ridiculous excitement today I am out of likes If the initial thump ends up verifying the models will have really handled it well. They have had my area targeted for a couple of days now. I just hope they are right. Hope you get pummeled..lol. it's been a rough few years for the western crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: My brother lives near Denver. It was near 60F there yesterday in early afternoon. By 8 PM (their time) he had 3" on the ground and snowing pretty heavily. All about rates and air temps, (and solar at this time of year) not antecedent ground temps. Denver is the world leader in pulling off accumulating snow within 12hrs of 60f temps. We ain't that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 As was said, 34 and almost moderate snow at 12 noon won't work but 33 and heavy snow from 6pm on will work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Amped said: Denver is the world leader in pulling off accumulating snow within 12hrs of 60f temps. We ain't that good. We're not good at anything.... except heat and humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: We're not good at anything.... except heat and humidity. Car toppers & blizzards as well. That's about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @mappy @HighStakes @showmethesnow And the rest of the northern tier... I think we're safe for a solid snowfall but the difference between a standard 4-6" snow and perhaps pushing for double digits will come down to 2 factors. 1. How much accumulation we can squeeze out of the waa precip. I think some sleet is unavoidable and probably a lot of it. But if we can get enough cooling in some heavy bands to pick up 2-4" with that vs just 1" of sleet tomorrow we will be off to a good start. I'm 50/50 on that. Nams are warm. Most other guidance says we are close enough to get snow in heavier bands. It's close. 2. How the banding sets up with the ccb. There is no way to pin that BUT this track and our location usually works. We often see that back edge deform band set up right across our area. There were strong hints of that on the euro. And models always undergo qpf and ratios in that band. If we get into such a band early Wednesday and pile up some snow before radiation starts to fight back mid morning things could snowball our way. Get both of those to break our way and 10"+ is very possible. Get one and 6-8" is very possible. Both those fail and we're looking at 3-6". That's my thoughts right now. If I had to forecast I would go 4-8 to split the difference between all those options. Great write up! Always enjoy reading your thoughts. I'm a bit further west than you but probably about the same latitude. About 5 miles from the pa border. I am at just over 700 ft in elevation. I think we are sitting in a pretty good spot. Good luck tomorrow and Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Amped said: Denver is the world leader in pulling off accumulating snow within 12hrs of 60f temps. We ain't that good. That's because their elevation makes it much easier to get snow with otherwise warm patterns. Just need a storm to pass south to get an east wind and upslope. But the elevation does nothing to their soil temps or radiation. The fact Denver is often 60-70 degrees for a whole week before getting a snowstorm in early or late season when soil temps are 50 or higher before it starts should end this nonsense argument once and forever. Yes ground temps can have some effect early in a storm but if it snows hard it won't matter. Proof is in history here. "Scoreboard". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: We're not good at anything.... except heat and humidity. And wind. Don't forget about the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, MillvilleWx said: And wind. Don't forget about the wind Well, and drought too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Just reading thru and analyzing the 58' storm...that storm looked more marginal at the surface 32 -35 up here . Weaker high to the north for sure .. ... Most models keep us at or below 32 so I think moderate rates get it done ( 1/2" + /hr.) Nice write ups today...btw . March 58 performed due to epic precip. Close to 5" qpf to get the 30". I doubt we get that much qpf but rates might be a bit better. Temps look colder. Still that was a 1/50 year fluke. That and march 42 are the only examples of that much snow this late. Very unlikely this pulls anything close. I know you know that. Just saying. But...if something ever did pull that off it would be a cut off captured low about where this is and models probably wouldn't fully pick up on that kind of band until last minute. The epic totals were a pretty narrow area actually aided by upslope and elevation nw of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I know we're inside ensemble range. But the 18z gefs jumped fully on board with EPS totals now. Pretty good agreement now and a good look. 12z EPS 18z gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSF Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, caviman2201 said: Perhaps this has already been answered, but why does LWX have N&W with only WWA's and S&E with WSW when they are predicting more snow N&W? The WWAs are for Tuesday and include the WSW later. The other areas aren't expected to see as much early Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, caviman2201 said: Perhaps this has already been answered, but why does LWX have N&W with only WWA's and S&E with WSW when they are predicting more snow N&W? The WWA advisory is for tomorrow. It includes the WSW for tomorrow night into WednesdaY ninja’d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Food for thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Jandurin said: M8 he's trying to actually see weather It's an interesting exercise but he's not that good No one is Let argue this over in banter, where i wont show up for the argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The RAP looks a lot like LWX high end scenario, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, Fozz said: The RAP looks a lot like LWX high end scenario, FWIW. Where do you get the RAP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NAM has rain into the area by sunrise tomorrow (much earlier). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 North MoCo/HoCo, Carrol, and points N/NW/NE: 7-9” 10-12” max in usual jackpot elevation areas Baltimore city: 4-6” — 8-9” max with banding and colder temps verifying perfectly. Not likely IMO. Downtown DC: 2-5” - 7” max with good rates and colder temps verifying Northern areas win for one simple reason: Wave 1 accumulation. I think northern Baltimore and Harford County are in a good spot. Colder for wave 1 and far enough east and north with wave 2. I see areas from frederick on west seeing much less QPF from wave 2 if we’re being realistic and not wishcasting based on the snowiest models. I believe we easily overcome climo and that it comes faster than models depict. Which is always the case. Changeover begins 8 am far northwest, and I believe 95 is snow by 2 PM. Rates of .75”+ per hour will accumulate, so let’s cut the March warmth crap it can snow a foot a day after it’s 70 degrees if it snows hard enough be smart people don’t model hug. H5 and 500 mb look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, Fozz said: The RAP looks a lot like LWX high end scenario, FWIW. RAP is pretty terrible, I've been following it all Winter. The 15z SREF is impressive snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 RAP for whatever it is worth... (not much) https://twitter.com/_NEweather/status/975911736309157889 https://twitter.com/_NEweather/status/975911736309157889 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalweather/status/975913852868153346 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NAM is pretty warm upstairs for just about everybody with the initial thump. A ton of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: Frederick's forecast is for 8-12". Interior MD has been bullseyed for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Point and click forecast has been updated for HGR-MRB-OKV. 2-4" during the day on Tuesday, 1-3" Tuesday evening and 3-5 on Wednesday. All snow by 11:00 a.m. Except by 2:00 p.m. in Winchester. WWA still saying up to an inch during the day tomorrow. in the WS Warning area to the west, all snow after 8:00 a.m. with 4-8" Tuesday, 1-3" at night and 3-5" on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Can anyone help me understand why the NAM 12k is showing rain for everything East of the Loudon/Fairfax line, but shows several inches already on the total snow fall map (I don't see a total snow depth map to compare it to)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NovaTarHeel said: Can anyone help me understand why the NAM 12k is showing rain for everything East of the Loudon/Fairfax line, but shows several inches already on the total snow fall map (I don't see a total snow depth map to compare it to)? @WxUSAF can probably tell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 So far to me, on surface maps, NAM seems wetter down in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: Can anyone help me understand why the NAM 12k is showing rain for everything East of the Loudon/Fairfax line, but shows several inches already on the total snow fall map (I don't see a total snow depth map to compare it to)? Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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