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March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD


stormtracker

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was some other stuff going on personally that had me a real mess the last week. Stuff way more important to me then snow but I'm sure it bled over.  That's why I cut way back on posts the last day of two. I realized I was full tilt and a mess. Sorry about that. But it's ok now...both the personal thing and the weather! 

Btw the progression here is very similar to 96.  Not exact it all comes across further north initially.  But where the h5 and slp ends up is close.  Of course ground truth late march isn't going to look like January even if it's a repeat which I'm not saying just noticing the similarities.  

 

P.S. Ah, I gotcha. Hey it happens...personal issues AND snow tracking ate a bad combination (especially for complicated minds like ours, lol). I pray it works out, whatever you were dealing with :)

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 

Hey, in March, the equivalent may be 1/3 of it (although even half of it isn't impossible in March...but perhaps that's just my snow greed talking, lol)

Considering some us had well over 2 feet in 96 we are talking like 8-12 inches. That would be a HECS for March in my book. 

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2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Interested to see NWS' take on this run.  So far, they remain very unimpressed.  My zone forecast has gone down again, now down to just 1-2" accumulation through tomorrow night.

Yeah, there's conservative and then there's conservative.  They may well turn out to be right, but they may also be very, very wrong.

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was some other stuff going on personally that had me a real mess the last week. Stuff way more important to me then snow but I'm sure it bled over.  That's why I cut way back on posts the last day of two. I realized I was full tilt and a mess. Sorry about that. But it's ok now...both the personal thing and the weather! 

Btw the progression here is very similar to 96.  Not exact it all comes across further north initially.  But where the h5 and slp ends up is close.  Of course ground truth late march isn't going to look like January even if it's a repeat which I'm not saying just noticing the similarities.  

 

I'd like to see the winds get cranking like Jan 96.  It was a blast in the overnight Sunday, Mon. morning around these parts.

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Does this still have some potential for folks to hit double digit totals? Assuming it depends on banding of course and where it sets up (MoCo/HoCo anyone). :lol:

I guess my question is can this juice up anymore on future runs or we maxed out at this point? 

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Pitt upgraded their watch to a warning for the mountains

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
319 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

MDZ001-WVZ512>514-200330-
/O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.180320T2100Z-180321T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0005.180320T0900Z-180322T0000Z/
Garrett-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland MD,
Grantsville, Terra Alta, Rowlesburg, Hazelton, Parsons,
Hendricks, Saint George, Davis, Thomas, and Canaan Valley
319 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected overnight into Tuesday
  morning then a break before heavy wet snow Tuesday night into
  Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 12 inches, with
  localized amounts up to 14 inches. Ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch are expected by 1pm Tuesday afterward all
  snow is forecast.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In West Virginia, Eastern
  Preston, Western Tucker and Eastern Tucker Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to
  impossible, including during the morning commute on Wednesday.
  Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.
  Power outages and down trees are possible from the wet snow as
  well.

 

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4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Does this still have some potential for folks to hit double digit totals? Assuming it depends on banding of course and where it sets up (MoCo/HoCo anyone). :lol:

I guess my question is can this juice up anymore on future runs or we maxed out at this point? 

I don’t think there’s going to be a wholesale increase in precip over the average ~1.5” we’re seeing in all the guidance. But there are always bands in a CCB like what’s depicted on the euro. Throw in the time of year, mixing scenarios tomorrow, plus elevation and it’s a recipe for a big range of totals across the region. But yes, I think areas near the PA line could see double digits.

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Wakefield issues watches for the Shore. 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
329 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

MDZ021>025-200330-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0002.180321T1000Z-180322T0300Z/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Including the cities of Cambridge, Salisbury, Crisfield,
Princess Anne, Snow Hill, and Ocean City
329 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
  inches are possible.

* WHERE...Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset, Inland Worcester County
  and the Maryland Beaches.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the evening commute on Wednesday. Significant
  reductions in visibility are possible.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
332 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...Early spring storm to bring potential for long duration
wet snow and mixed precipitation to portions of south central
Pennsylvania Tuesday through Wednesday...

PAZ033>036-064>066-201015-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0006.180320T1000Z-180322T0000Z/
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg,
Chambersburg, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
332 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT....Total snow accumulations of 6 inches or more are
  possible, especially in the higher elevations. Snow will mix
  with rain, freezing rain and sleet at times with ice
  accumulations of a light glaze possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Pennsylvania.
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26 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Interested to see NWS' take on this run.  So far, they remain very unimpressed.  My zone forecast has gone down again, now down to just 1-2" accumulation through tomorrow night.

I'm thinking the bulk of the snow, even out there will be overnight through noon Wednesday. If that's heavy snow, it's easily 8-12 inches

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3 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

Wakefield issues watches for the Shore. 

 


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
329 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

MDZ021>025-200330-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0002.180321T1000Z-180322T0300Z/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Including the cities of Cambridge, Salisbury, Crisfield,
Princess Anne, Snow Hill, and Ocean City
329 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
  inches are possible.

* WHERE...Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset, Inland Worcester County
  and the Maryland Beaches.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the evening commute on Wednesday. Significant
  reductions in visibility are possible.

Wow  Wakefield bullish. Not like them to pull the trigger early.

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