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March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD


stormtracker

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Just now, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said:

Surprised to see the euro coming in so wet

I'm not. If the current consensus of a sub 990 low stalling just off the Delmarva with a closed h5 low passing just under us is correct.... in March with the juice available this time of year!!!!

qpf can be pretty epic. That's why I wasn't entertaining the "precip sucks" discussion earlier with the NAM. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm not. If the current consensus of a sub 990 low stalling just off the Delmarva with a closed h5 low passing just under us is correct.... in March with the juice available this time of year!!!!

qpf can be pretty epic. That's why I wasn't entertaining the "precip sucks" discussion earlier with the NAM. 

I see, its march. Normally i remember the euro as lacking precip most of the time. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm not. If the current consensus of a sub 990 low stalling just off the Delmarva with a closed h5 low passing just under us is correct.... in March with the juice available this time of year!!!!

qpf can be pretty epic. That's why I wasn't entertaining the "precip sucks" discussion earlier with the NAM. 

The qpf distribution is going to evolve but there's no way we escape an acceptable event at this point IMHO. In between the ull and slp is going to have crap piles of dynamics to work with. There's not doubt going to be thundersnow and/or thundersleet reported. No doubt in my mind

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

What a money run at h5. I'm looking forward to my sleet too. I knew the euro would up the ante with wave 2. I have to retire after this year. I used up all my good guesses for the rest of my life in 3 days.

You are on an epic tear. You better buy a lottery ticket stat

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I have been silent for a while. This is an amazing run of the euro. It’s textbook for our area. Deepening of the low and tucked in near OC will bring deformation right across our region. If a storm overwhelms the challenges this time of the year it’s certainly one like this! Classic. Game on.

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that weather.us site shows widespread 4"+ from north of richmond throughout much of the region.  general qpf of 1-2" and more towards the shore.  significant increase from 0z especially across the northern tier where upwards of 8"+ is showing now.  i don't know how it calculates the snow totals so that may be high end, but needless to say, a nice run.

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1 minute ago, 87storms said:

that weather.us site shows widespread 4"+ from north of richmond throughout much of the region.  general qpf of 1-2" and more towards the shore.  significant increase from 0z especially across the northern tier where upwards of 8"+ is showing now.  i don't know how it calculates the snow totals so that may be high end, but needless to say, a nice run.

I have a feeling they use 10:1.

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3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

that weather.us site shows widespread 4"+ from north of richmond throughout much of the region.  general qpf of 1-2" and more towards the shore.  significant increase from 0z especially across the northern tier where upwards of 8"+ is showing now.  i don't know how it calculates the snow totals so that may be high end, but needless to say, a nice run.

Are you looking at the snow depth maps?  I've found that the Euro snow depth maps on weather.us tend to be overdone, especially in events with marginal temps.  You're probably better off using Kuchera ratios.

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1 minute ago, cae said:

Are you looking at the snow depth maps?  I've found that the Euro snow depth maps on weather.us tend to be overdone, especially in events with marginal temps.  You're probably better off using Kuchera ratios.

kuchera ratios for the euro aren't available on weather.us i don't think

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29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Feel better now? Lol Would love to have the level-headed PSU back...the nailbiter one was strange, lol

There was some other stuff going on personally that had me a real mess the last week. Stuff way more important to me then snow but I'm sure it bled over.  That's why I cut way back on posts the last day of two. I realized I was full tilt and a mess. Sorry about that. But it's ok now...both the personal thing and the weather! 

Btw the progression here is very similar to 96.  Not exact it all comes across further north initially.  But where the h5 and slp ends up is close.  Of course ground truth late march isn't going to look like January even if it's a repeat which I'm not saying just noticing the similarities.  

 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

There was some other stuff going on personally that had me a real mess the last week. Stuff way more important to me then snow but I'm sure it bled over.  That's why I cut way back on posts the last day of two. I realized I was full tilt and a mess. Sorry about that. But it's ok now...both the personal thing and the weather! 

Btw the progression here is very similar to 96.  Not exact it all comes across further north initially.  But where the h5 and slp ends up is close.  Of course ground truth late march isn't going to look like January even if it's a repeat which I'm not saying just noticing the similarities.  

 

As in January 1996?  I would take ⅓ of that.  That was a fun storm. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was some other stuff going on personally that had me a real mess the last week. Stuff way more important to me then snow but I'm sure it bled over.  That's why I cut way back on posts the last day of two. I realized I was full tilt and a mess. Sorry about that. But it's ok now...both the personal thing and the weather! 

Btw the progression here is very similar to 96.  Not exact it all comes across further north initially.  But where the h5 and slp ends up is close.  Of course ground truth late march isn't going to look like January even if it's a repeat which I'm not saying just noticing the similarities.  

 

 

2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

As in January 1996?  I would take ⅓ of that.  That was a fun storm. 

Hey, in March, the equivalent may be 1/3 of it (although even half of it isn't impossible in March...but perhaps that's just my snow greed talking, lol)

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