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March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD


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11 minutes ago, high risk said:

A friendly reminder with the NAMs and GFS that snow and sleet are tallied together in the model.    So if 0.8" of liquid falls as sleet, the model outputs 0.8" of "snow water equivalent", and if a site like TT applies a 10:1 ratio, you get 8" of snow on the map in a scenario in which you'd have 2-3" of sleet on the ground.    The Ferrier method (available on TT for the NAM3) is much more consistent with the model microphysics.  If sleet is falling, it shows a high rime factor for the falling hydrometeors, and that is translated into a very low (~2:1) SLR.     It's always possible that the NAM3 is overdoing the warm layer, so it could end up snowier than progged, but the Ferrier snow accumulation map *is consistent with what the model is doing*.     The 10:1 is not.

Yea, there is no way in hell that areas close to the cities are getting 1'+. Snowmaps couldn't me more misleading in this case. People need to look at soundings for their yards and figure out their own solution. I think I get 4" of snow out of this deal right now with a nice sleet base to boot. 

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Way too much worrying about meso scale things at 48-60 hours. Bottom line is a deepening 985 low captured and stalled 50 miles east of OC is going to CCB us good.  Does that mean 3" or 8" or 12" will depend on meso scale stuff we won't know at 48 hours. But that track is money.

Shame this is march 22 and not feb 22 or we would be looking at 2 feet here. Unfortunately we're gonna lose a lot of accumulation.  Probably all the waa even up here I expect at most 1-3" of sleet/snow mix with that. 

But beggars can't be choosers and this is set up good to be a flush hit with the coastal. My one big concern is I wish it was coming in at night though. Timing matters this time of year. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

I need a northern tier update from @HighStakes or @losetoa6 or @psuhoffman 

It's setting up where the northern tier will do very well. We get that low placement and capture that the models seem to be latching onto and we are probably golden. Let's see what the globals have to say in a few though before we start pulling out our shovels. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Get your shovel tuned up. You'll mix for shorter than the rest of us. Sleet probably for a while. But 6" of snow is becoming likely. 

They are in the basement all dusted off. Thank you! Playing catch up at work and not following the runs very well. 

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

It's setting up where the northern tier will do very well. We get that low placement and capture that the models seem to be latching onto and we are probably golden. Let's see what the globals have to say in a few though before we start pulling out our shovels. 

Thanks. Timing still what it has been? Early start tomorrow with a mix off/on all day, then all snow tomorrow night into wednesday? 

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Just now, mappy said:

They are in the basement all dusted off. Thank you! Playing catch up at work and not following the runs very well. 

Thanks. Timing still what it has been? Early start tomorrow with a mix off/on all day, then all snow tomorrow night into wednesday? 

Sounds about right. Think the mix up in our region may a quick burst of snow initially over to a somewhat decent sleet event before we flip back over to snow late afternoon, evening. About ready to walk out the door so that is just a quick observation without looking into depth on it from the latest runs.

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FYI just issued from PIT

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1132 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018


MDZ001-WVZ512>514-192345-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.180320T2100Z-180321T2100Z/
Garrett-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland MD,
Grantsville, Terra Alta, Rowlesburg, Hazelton, Parsons,
Hendricks, Saint George, Davis, Thomas, and Canaan Valley
1132 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations over 8
  inches with potential for more than a foot.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In West Virginia, Eastern
  Preston and Tucker County.

* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I was just looking over some of the Cobb numbers on Bufkit and the ratio's for the 12Z NAM run were around 4 or 5 to 1 when the snow is falling. That seems pretty realistic to me with the temps being modeled. 5 or 6 inches seems like the most realistic call out here IMO.

How bad do you think the sleet will be?

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7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Anybody got a link for the extended RGEM? I am not sure which model cycles it runs. But I would love to see it.

It runs every time the RGEM runs.  The 12z run isn't out yet, but when it is the 84-hour qpf as snow maps will show up here.

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_12/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_12/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif

Of course usual caveats apply.

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4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Sounds about right. Think the mix up in our region may a quick burst of snow initially over to a somewhat decent sleet event before we flip back over to snow late afternoon, evening. About ready to walk out the door so that is just a quick observation without looking into depth on it from the latest runs.

thank you, friend! 

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22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're on a backside band from the surface and 850 lows during this panel. Upper level support from the closed ull in this location could enhance things as it all pulls away. I like the RGEM very much. Not perfect but complaining would be dumb

IWurOqr.jpg

Yea. I pretty much agree with everyone.  There’s ways this could boom or bust but the potential is there without a doubt.

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