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March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD


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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Heh, heck of a storm inbound. I just scanned everything. It's a kitchen sink followed my midwinter powder if it breaks right...and it's looking to break right. I expect sig changes for the better on the 12z euro. Everything else looks great. Good times. 

SREF are crap models, but mean is creeping up...hopefully its a good sign (as it usually is). 

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4 minutes ago, Clueless said:

Even with elevation west of Leesburg I’m expecting more rain than frozen.  Anything over three inches is a win for me. 

You will end up being very happy then I would guess. I mean all guidance says everyone from you west is going to get hit pretty hard. I am expecting some mix up front even out here. But it appears the column cools pretty rapidly over the Shenandoah Valley and east to the Blue Ridge. I dont know exactly where you are. But if you are up on the mountain by Mt. Weather I think you are going to get crushed.

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

You will end up being very happy then I would guess. I mean all guidance says everyone from you west is going to get hit pretty hard. I am expecting some mix up front even out here. But it appears the column cools pretty rapidly over the Shenandoah Valley and east to the Blue Ridge. I dont know exactly where you are. But if you are up on the mountain by Mt. Weather I think you are going to get crushed.

I have a feeling you're gonna get a great hit from this storm. You're in a sweet position to get something, possible from wave 1 as well. 

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14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Heh, heck of a storm inbound. I just scanned everything. It's a kitchen sink followed my midwinter powder if it breaks right...and it's looking to break right. I expect sig changes for the better on the 12z euro. Everything else looks great. Good times. 

You were always expecting to punt most of round 1 but I was hoping to cash in on some of it. I guess there’s still a chance there, but it looks lower than 24 hours ago. I get nervous relying on a CCB to develop overhead. Too much margin for error on bands and placement.

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Looks like I'll have to take a drive to Salisbury from OC it looks like they will be a eastern shore sweetspot again even tho it will likely snow in oc aswell. Ocean temps are still cold. Nam went bonkers but even the GFS lays 5+ after temps go bellow freezing. 

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Just now, WeathermanB said:

Woah. The 12z NAM at 27 hours is a complete sleet and slop mess.

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_27.png

I think most products like this are useless. I would think that soundings and precip panels would provide a much better indication of what might happen.  

Just look at that map.  It has a small circle of just rain in the middle of the snow/sleet in sw PA.

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