Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD


stormtracker

Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I dont follow this dude, but he is hitting at least partly on my concern with how this unfolds. Just too many pieces of energy at h5. The lead wave in the upper levels seems to get stuck over WV, and all the trailing energy gets strung out in a deep, but broad trough. Eventually a coastal low is induced at the surface, but it will probably swing pretty far offshore as it is developing. This is some sort of a hybrid miller B, and I think the latest runs are revealing the "in between" dead zone. Hope I am wrong, but right now I am not thrilled with the look.

Agreed. The system started to unravel as modeled once if came onshore the west coast with multiple vorts running loose. The key is how quickly those pieces can gel again as it moves east.  The better model runs have that happening sooner than later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I'm not going to make it up for the Euro, but RGEM ensemble mean is the best I've seen it all year.  Below is qpf as snow and total qpf.  Please keep in mind that for many of us ratios will likely be poor for the qpf labeled "snow".

D9c6rtE.png

mVgPwUu.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EC is more amped for sure with the second wave, but for us along and east of 95, in this scenario we may be waiting well after 00Z Wed before we'd finally flip to snow (check out that strong easterly 850 flow before the low gets off the coast).

But, this would also spell more CCB snows after 12Z Wed as well. Ratios higher than 5-7 to 1 are tough to get after 14-15Z this time of year around here unless the rates are crazy. Would love for this to play out a good 6 hours earlier ;)

20180319_021535.png

Screenshot_20180319-021434.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Ji said:

We just got named with a slow moving bomb Tuesday night and Wednesday

Yeah NAM has a pretty nice CCB like the Euro. Hope the models are locking in on the coastal development/location, because thats the heavy snow producer for most. Much of what falls prior to that is rain/sleet/slop for many. Out your way you will do better with the lead stuff although still probably some sleet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro verbatim for DC: Rain would begin early Tuesday morning with temperatures near 40.  Surface and 850 hPa temperatures dropping through morning to mid 30s by noon with ~0.5" of rain before letting up in early afternoon.  Light drizzle through the afternoon into the overnight hours with temperatures hovering in low to mid 30s.  850 temperatures plummet overnight with surface temperatures cooperating by morning.  Flurries Wednesday morning changing to moderate snow by mid-morning before ending early evening ~0.4" falls with cooperative temperatures. 

Just one solution. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah NAM has a pretty nice CCB like the Euro. Hope the models are locking in on the coastal development/location, because thats the heavy snow producer for most. Much of what falls prior to that is rain/sleet/slop for many. Out your way you will do better with the lead stuff although still probably some sleet.

12K and 3K are a hairs breadth away from something special for the balt/dc corridor. At this point the 500's are lagging just a touch behind so we see the Del Marva get the brunt of the coastal. Just 3 hours quicker on the capture closer to the coast and the 95 corridor probably scores big (temps allowing).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

12K and 3K are a hairs breadth away from something special for the balt/dc corridor. At this point the 500's are lagging just a touch behind so we see the Del Marva get the brunt of the coastal. Just 3 hours quicker on the capture closer to the coast and the 95 corridor probably scores big (temps allowing).

Yep still lots of small details to be resolved with all the embedded shortwave energy. Latest NAM and the Euro really show the potential for a high impact event with the coastal for at least parts of the region though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yep still lots of small details to be resolved with all the embedded shortwave energy. Latest NAM and the Euro really show the potential for a high impact event with the coastal for at least parts of the region though.

EPS has some utility still for the coastal as it falls outside of 48 hours. I like the improvements I have seen there over its 12z run. Actually like then very much to be honest. Made a strong move for a closer coastal that gets hung up off the coast as the 500's catch up. See a pretty decent increase in mean snow fall for the NW suburbs for that period of time as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Euro verbatim for DC: Rain would begin early Tuesday morning with temperatures near 40.  Surface and 850 hPa temperatures dropping through morning to mid 30s by noon with ~0.5" of rain before letting up in early afternoon.  Light drizzle through the afternoon into the overnight hours with temperatures hovering in low to mid 30s.  850 temperatures plummet overnight with surface temperatures cooperating by morning.  Flurries Wednesday morning changing to moderate snow by mid-morning before ending early evening ~0.4" falls with cooperative temperatures. 

Just one solution. 

Ultimately is going to be the coastal that makes or breaks this event, specifically where the ccb sets up. The main show looks to occur mostly during the daylight hours on Wed, so light to occasionally moderate snow wont get it done especially in the Urban areas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
38 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

6z nam is boss. 

 

So wait, SE VA went from ~20" to ~1" in one run? The model fluxes from run to run are dizzying. Bullseye and qpf maxes with this are like a game of darts while blindfolded, geez.

You sound surprised. You know the drill. Anything outside of 48 hours is for entertainment sake only. Especially the surface. 

I tell you what though, up to 48 hours I like the 500's. Would like to see the 500's a little quicker but I would take that look and roll the dice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF locked and unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...