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March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD


stormtracker

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Says the guy who gets the most digital snow. Lol. Dude 

We have time. But I keep waiting for something to go boom with the ccb on wave 2 and it's just anemic and disjointed. A lot of light to moderate snow. No sn++ deform band. 

Im also frustrated this keeps morphing. Just when I was totally happy with how it looked with a healthy wave 1 then some bonus wave 2 suddenly wave 1 is weakening again. I know that doesn't matter for you but wave 1 was 60% of my snow so an anemic wave 1 cuts down on my potential a lot. Suddenly I don't see any 10"+ runs tonight. 

This still likely comes together. And I think models are still getting there but damnit can't that stick to one good solution. They keep morphing into other ideas. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We have time. But I keep waiting for something to go boom with the ccb on wave 2 and it's just anemic and disjointed. A lot of light to moderate snow. No sn++ deform band. 

Im also frustrated this keeps morphing. Just when I was totally happy with how it looked with a healthy wave 1 then some bonus wave 2 suddenly wave 1 is weakening again. I know that doesn't matter for you but wave 1 was 60% of my snow so an anemic wave 1 cuts down on my potential a lot. Suddenly I don't see any 10"+ runs tonight. 

This still likely comes together. And I think models are still getting there but damnit can't that stick to one good solution. They keep morphing into other ideas. 

Nail on head

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs mostly held from 18z. It was just noise with the differences. Track and progression was basically the same. Seeing 2 similar runs in a row like that can't be ignored but we're surely not off the ride yet. I'm sticking the where the rgem was going and calling it a night 

Yeah, Im with you.  Im trying to wait up for the CMC then I'm off to bed.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs mostly held from 18z. It was just noise with the differences. Track and progression was basically the same. Seeing 2 similar runs in a row like that can't be ignored but we're surely not off the ride yet. I'm sticking the where the rgem was going and calling it a night 

It was hard to find differences with the coastal but maybe slightly closer off the Delmarva and a little better with the ull.  Need it to develop quicker and a little west.

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Every single model crushes us out here. I can't stay up for the Euro. But I hope it holds with it's wet 12z idea. Talk to yall in the morning.

GFS has like 3-5" 10:1 in Winchester.  I don't consider that crushed.

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs mostly held from 18z. It was just noise with the differences. Track and progression was basically the same. Seeing 2 similar runs in a row like that can't be ignored but we're surely not off the ride yet. I'm sticking the where the rgem was going and calling it a night 

GFS has a lot less snow up here than 18z.  Just lighter with precip even though it trended north.  CMC cut way back from it's epic 12z.  

Not happy with results because a 3" snowstorm isn't going to make my winter. I'm not a fan of small events after mid February.   Go big or go spring.

 

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Dont mean to deb but, I think the idea of things not coming together into a focused lp off the coast needs to be entertained.  So many pieces to the puzzle and they keep changing.  I feel for NWS.  Imo, this still has the potential to put down 1-3 on grassy surfaces NW of 95....or, 6-12".  00z so far hasn't instilled much confidence on either scenario....A testament to it's complexity.

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50 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

We all feel this 

 

I dont follow this dude, but he is hitting at least partly on my concern with how this unfolds. Just too many pieces of energy at h5. The lead wave in the upper levels seems to get stuck over WV, and all the trailing energy gets strung out in a deep, but broad trough. Eventually a coastal low is induced at the surface, but it will probably swing pretty far offshore as it is developing. This is some sort of a hybrid miller B, and I think the latest runs are revealing the "in between" dead zone. Hope I am wrong, but right now I am not thrilled with the look.

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