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March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD


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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs made a notable step towards the euro. Very good run. Getting closer to a wave 2 big hit with cold surface 

You're battin' .1000 with the predictions the last couple days, Bob! You said it was gonna come closer this run yet not all the way, lol (although this is probably the closest it's been)

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

You're battin' .1000 with the predictions the last couple days, Bob! You said it was gonna come closer this run yet not all the way, lol (although this is probably the closest it's been)

I'm no genious. I've just wasted way too many hours over the last decade staring at this crap. It's safe to so now that wave 2 is legit. Getting some nice convergence on that. Gfs went colder in the mids with wave 1 but not enough to save my yard. All in all I loved the run. Upside is gaining traction 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm no genious. I've just wasted way too many hours over the last decade staring at this crap. It's safe to so now that wave 2 is legit. Getting some nice convergence on that. Gfs went colder in the mids with wave 1 but not enough to save my yard. All in all I loved the run. Upside is gaining traction 

NAM looks better for wave 2 as well no?

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1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Meh run for DC

Only because the frontrunner rains too much and the trailer is weak. Oddly the trend has been to reverse both of those issues but no way the cities and my yard jackpot. I already know who will and one of them has no fingernails left 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Only because the frontrunner rains too much and the trailer is weak. Oddly the trend has been to reverse both of those issues but no way the cities and my yard jackpot. I already know who will and one of them has no fingernails left 

i only quickly glanced, but it looked better.  not like hugely better, but closer coastal.  better consolidation.  looks like a bit of a lull, but we have a full day of tracking for that to get better.

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Color me shocked that psu land is trending towards a big hit no problem. All those long worried posts are paying off. Lol. 

The last 2 years have gotten to me more then I thought.  It wasn't bothering me when stuff was falling apart outside day 5.  I don't take anything at that range seriously so year it bugged me we werent getting snow but I wasn't getting frustrated and teased by the threats the same as some seemed to be.  But the last couple weeks there have been some threats that were pretty well set up and made it into decent range (up here anyways) and still mostly fell apart.  I guess when this one made it to day 4 then started playing morph into waves and supression games I was like UGH.  I definitely have been less clear headed about this then I would like.  And I am a worrier and over analyze.  Not from range...I don't care what day 7 stuff does (btw day 7 threat looks legit lol) but once it gets into real range thats when I get more interested and can get frustrated by these things. 

It seems things are trending back towards what it looked like days ago where the lead wave would slow down and wait for everything to phase into it then amplify off the mid atlantic coast as one storm, and possibly a long duration one.  I think that solution is becoming locked in now.  Now the details like warm layers, surface temps, time of day, rates, banding and all that good stuff will need to be resolved as we get closer. 

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the precip shield definitely ticked a bit northwest this run for wave 2.  not a huge step, but certainly better than the other direction.

it's a close shave, so certainly need another shift west to get into some of the good stuff, but the trend the last few runs is kind of undeniable for now.

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Only because the frontrunner rains too much and the trailer is weak. Oddly the trend has been to reverse both of those issues but no way the cities and my yard jackpot. I already know who will and one of them has no fingernails left 

Could things trend better in that department? :D (and I have an IMBY question: How much difference between my yard (Balt City) and yours? Seems like we have far fewer commenters from my yard on here, and I get a little lost to how much to expect sometimes!) There have been times when D.C. (or are you Rockville?) has gotten less than me (and other times more). And then you see these maps and the "northern" precip always slices right through the city, lol

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14 minutes ago, Chase said:

How's the greater metro look?

For you and I, it looks like nothing to get excited about both at h5 and the surface.  We rain a lot and get a little snow.  h5 looks flatter and further east than 12z.  Positive snow depth change is nothing to even move the needle of excitement.  If this is how it goes down then, for us, we won’t look back at this event and say “wow, that was awesome”...this is my opinion.  Crush me to dust if needed.based solely on the 18z GFS op.  

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Could things trend better in that department? :D (and I have an IMBY question: How much difference between my yard (Balt City) and yours? Seems like we have far fewer commenters from my yard on here, and I get a little lost to how much to expect sometimes!) There have been times when D.C. (or are you Rockville?) has gotten less than me (and other times more). And then you see these maps and the "northern" precip always slices right through the city, lol

Inside the UHI will never jackpot this time of year.  Its pretty much impossible.  Even if precip didnt make it NW then areas just outside the city with some elevation (hilly areas) would be the jackpot.  The cities are built near sea level and with the heat island built in and time of year where temps matter a LOT someone outside the city will do better here.  That is baked in and cant change.  But again that doesn't mean the cities can do well just someone is going to jackpot and it wont be inside either beltway most likely. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It seems things are trending back towards what it looked like days ago where the lead wave would slow down and wait for everything to phase into it then amplify off the mid atlantic coast as one storm, and possibly a long duration one.  I think that solution is becoming locked in now.  Now the details like warm layers, surface temps, time of day, rates, banding and all that good stuff will need to be resolved as we get closer. 

Question is, I suppose, will that happen quickly enough or will it be too delayed by the time it can work.  For some time the general idea has been that more phasing of both waves would probably be a lot better and for everyone...rather than hoping for the 1st one to hit.  Then the models over the past few days trended toward a separate, two-wave scenario...and now appear to be headed toward a more consolidated event like you mentioned.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Inside the UHI will never jackpot this time of year.  Its pretty much impossible.  Even if precip didnt make it NW then areas just outside the city with some elevation (hilly areas) would be the jackpot.  The cities are built near sea level and with the heat island built in and time of year where temps matter a LOT someone outside the city will do better here.  That is baked in and cant change.  But again that doesn't mean the cities can do well just someone is going to jackpot and it wont be inside either beltway most likely. 

Yeah I can understand the difference between YOUR yard and mine...but not so much Bob's yard (or D.C.) and mine. Like how sometimes Balt. City does better than D.C...Is it latitude? A further north UHI versus one further south? Lol

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Inside the UHI will never jackpot this time of year.  Its pretty much impossible.  Even if precip didnt make it NW then areas just outside the city with some elevation (hilly areas) would be the jackpot.  The cities are built near sea level and with the heat island built in and time of year where temps matter a LOT someone outside the city will do better here.  That is baked in and cant change.  But again that doesn't mean the cities can do well just someone is going to jackpot and it wont be inside either beltway most likely. 

Exactly.  Anyone hoping the cities/metro areas jackpot (relative to other areas) from this event isn't being realistic.  That said, there's a difference between hoping to be in the jackpot region, and hoping for something very good even if it's not the highest stripe of snow.  You don't have to be in the max area to still score well; warning criteria would be fantastic where I'm at.  I think too many were spoiled by that run or two of the Euro that put nearly 20" cold powder through the I-95 corridor.  Despite Ji thinking he had 22" of digital snow stolen from him!

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I can understand the difference between YOUR yard and mine...but not so much Bob's yard (or D.C.) and mine. Like how sometimes Balt. City does better than D.C...Is it latitude? A further north UHI versus one further south? Lol

In late March little things mean a lot. A few hundred feet of elevation, latitude, longitude, and even how developed the land is. I live ne of rockville in a very wooded area at just under 400'. I'll always do better than in town but Olney almost always does better than me because of elevation and latitude. In marginal events my yard falls in between the big winners and losers like 90% of the time. Could something break my way and let me beat areas that normally win? Sure, but that's a low odds proposition. I need to root for Olney to get destroyed so I can come in a close second behind them.

If you live inside of 695 in an urban area then don't expect to beat Timonium or Parkville or wherever nearby. This late in the year has little factors that add up. In Jan when it's 15 degrees outside it doesn't matter. Whomever gets under the best lift wins. In late March concrete and trees and hills and all that stuff makes a noticeable difference 

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