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March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD


stormtracker

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Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

So I guess we’re hanging our hats on the Euro...which has been subpar this year....alrighty then. I’m not trying to be the downer here...but I’m sorry, I need to see more from the GFS and NAM 3K ferrier 

You are always a downer. Just let people feel good about the best run of the year on a major model within 3 days.

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1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

So I guess we’re hanging our hats on the Euro...which has been subpar this year....alrighty then. I’m not trying to be the downer here...but I’m sorry, I need to see more from the GFS and NAM 3K ferrier 

Euro and the CMC.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

There's already snow on the ground. Might be potatoes but VERBATIM the euro is almost a best case scenario. Just need wave 2 to boogie a little more and the precip falls into probably the best late march column you can ask for. 

I’m sure you are looking at things better than me and I like your enthusiasm. Getting the temp crash helps better than still having marginals

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3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

What’s the QPF after that panel? Obviously after dark sub freezing we’d accumulate just fine. 

.4 ish for you/me. NE MD gets more.  Snows all night into the morning. There's already a base of potatoes so once the sun sets and temps drop it will get real pretty. Even on the streets. The legit CCB from wave 2 just misses us. It's in NEMD and DE/NJ. We still snow though just not hot an heavy. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's already snow on the ground. Might be potatoes but VERBATIM the euro is almost a best case scenario. Just need wave 2 to boogie a little more and the precip falls into probably the best late march column you can ask for. 

This.  With how Euro is trending with Wave 2, I wouldn’t be surprised if EPS takes another step forward IRT some additional upside potential.  

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

.4 ish for you/me. NE MD gets more.  Snows all night into the morning. There's already a base of potatoes so once the sun sets and temps drop it will get real pretty. Even on the streets. The legit CCB from wave 2 just misses us. It's in NEMD and DE/NJ. We still snow though just not hot an heavy. 

What would need to happen to get the CCB from wave 2 down here into DC/Baltimore?.

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7 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Bristow, at least 1.2 qpf according to the latest EURO. Maybe we score this time. EURO not prone to drastic changes , I think, so maybe we eventually surpass 1.5 qpf.

Yo..looks good to me.  Still skeptical only because I am that way and will be nervous until it starts actually snowing since there isn’t cold in place. Deal still stands WSW and drinks on me at the towncenter...how many drinks?  We can worry about rates later!

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6 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

So I guess we’re hanging our hats on the Euro...which has been subpar this year....alrighty then. I’m not trying to be the downer here...but I’m sorry, I need to see more from the GFS and NAM 3K ferrier 

No, you are.  But unlike others, I don't think you can help it. It's inherently part of you...in your DNA.  The ****ing ferrier.  GTFO out of here with that noise. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

.4 ish for you/me. NE MD gets more.  Snows all night into the morning. There's already a base of potatoes so once the sun sets and temps drop it will get real pretty. Even on the streets. The legit CCB from wave 2 just misses us. It's in NEMD and DE/NJ. We still snow though just not hot an heavy. 

But did that trend better from 00z though? (Get closer to being big?) And what was that 1.4 qpf for Central MD? (Sorry, I'm trying to wade through the other IMBY posts, lol)

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

.4 ish for you/me. NE MD gets more.  Snows all night into the morning. There's already a base of potatoes so once the sun sets and temps drop it will get real pretty. Even on the streets. The legit CCB from wave 2 just misses us. It's in NEMD and DE/NJ. We still snow though just not hot an heavy. 

I like that we’re within normal modeling error of the good CCB.  As you said, potential upside. 

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For the DC area: every single model is now showing accumulating snow after 0Z Wednesday. The CMC is by far the most, with the GFS/NAM being the least (furthest south) and the Euro/UK in between. Still too far to nail down that phase of the storm, but the unanimity is inspiring confidence that this will be a decent event because that phase of the storm was always going to be the colder part. Even if nothing's sticking during the day Tuesday, it would be fine knowing the "main event" is coming towards sunset. 

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

No, you are.  But unlike others, I don't think you can help it. It's inherently part of you...in your DNA.  The ****ing ferrier.  GTFO out of here with that noise. 

We all know when the ferrier is drastically different from the 10:1 it’s a red flag...

 

8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

That’s literally all you do, is piss on good news. 

Don’t eat the yellow snow!

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1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Has the same thermal issues as the NAM with wave 1 (no surprise there with that LLJ/WCB w/o a closed low aloft). A lot of that QPF, especially around DC, is rain, sleet or even freezing rain/and freezing drizzle. However wave 2 structurally looks better.

Absolutely. Everyone loves these 10:1 snow maps! Wave 2 will be key in my opinion 

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