Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kgottwald
    Newest Member
    kgottwald
    Joined
LithiaWx

3/19/18 Dixie Alley severe outbreak

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said:

It will.  Never fails.

I would not count on the wedge this go around.  The helocity and CAPE values around the west side of Metro Atlanta including Douglas County are high right now.  This is a very dangerous situation where we might see a tornado or wind damage

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Original circulation finally occluded and it appears that another one is starting to spin up to the south, unsurprisingly.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JSU Athletic Director in regards to their newly renovated basketball arena.

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, kayman said:

I would not count on the wedge this go around.  The helocity and CAPE values around the west side of Metro Atlanta including Douglas County are high right now.  This is a very dangerous situation where we might see a tornado or wind damage

Not counting on the wedge is a losing bet 100 out of 100 times.  I've followed severe weather setups in Georgia for almost 40 years and there is one thing that you can always count on.  The wedge.  It ruined the severe setup during last years mod/high risk day and has done so every single time in our areas history.  The only time we can get significant (that's the important word.....we can always have run of the mill severe weather) severe setups is when we are firmly in the warm sector...think Palm Sunday 1994, April 1998.  When I didn't see any sun today (granted I'm up in the NE corner of Gwinnett County firmly in CAD territory) I knew there was absolutely nothing to worry about.  As soon as the Jacksonville Alabama storm crossed over the border, it was game over.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to illustrate the point.....here's the current CAPE values for the SE per the SPC.  The warm front had all DAY to make it's way north but couldn't budge the wedge.  CAPE is pretty much confined to the western edge counties and points south.  Even some of the models had the warm front eventually lifting north of Atlanta by now.  Not a chance.

sbcp.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said:

Not counting on the wedge is a losing bet 100 out of 100 times.  I've followed severe weather setups in Georgia for almost 40 years and there is one thing that you can always count on.  The wedge.  It ruined the severe setup during last years mod/high risk day and has done so every single time in our areas history.  The only time we can get significant (that's the important word.....we can always have run of the mill severe weather) severe setups is when we are firmly in the warm sector...think Palm Sunday 1994, April 1998.  When I didn't see any sun today (granted I'm up in the NE corner of Gwinnett County firmly in CAD territory) I knew there was absolutely nothing to worry about.  As soon as the Jacksonville Alabama storm crossed over the border, it was game over.

Well, I say the same thing about the wedge when it as far west as Anniston/Oxford and Gadsden in East Alabama.  However, Douglas, Carroll, Coweta, and Fulton counties are in the warm sector.  We did see some sunshine here in SW Atlanta prior to sunset.  That's why I'm saying this storm system and its warm air advection is strong, CAPE values around 900 in West Georgia around Douglasville, and the low level jet is over the area right now.  This is ingredients to allow some redevelopment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, kayman said:

Well, I say the same thing about the wedge when it as far west as Anniston/Oxford and Gadsden in East Alabama.  However, Douglas, Carroll, Coweta, and Fulton counties are in the warm sector.  We did see some sunshine here in SW Atlanta prior to sunset.  That's why I'm saying this storm system and its warm air advection is strong, CAPE values around 900 in West Georgia right now.  This is ingredients to allow a redevelopment.

I'm not sure what redevelopment you're talking about unless you're talking about central/south Georgia, once this dying line moves through it's over for us here in Atlanta.  Warm air advection is strong, but not strong enough to move the warm front north of the metro.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, audioguy3107 said:

I'm not sure what redevelopment you're talking about unless you're talking about central/south Georgia, once this dying line moves through it's over for us here in Atlanta.  Warm air advection is strong, but not strong enough to move the warm front north of the metro.  

The west side of the Metro air mass is not the same as the airmass over NE Metro like Gwinnett right now.  The LLJ has forced the warm air even where I am right now in SW Atlanta.  It's 66 degrees when it was 57-59 degrees all day until about 5PM when the warm front move into the area hours ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now, there is a Tornado Warning for Douglas, Fulton counties with the cuplet south of Douglasville moving into SW Atlanta.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, kayman said:

The west side of the Metro air mass is not the same as the airmass over NE Metro like Gwinnett right now.  The LLJ has forced the warm air even where I am right now in SW Atlanta.  It's 66 degrees when it was 57-59 degrees all day until about 5PM when the warm front move into the area hours ago.

I hear ya, that would be important if it was 10 AM and the system was still to our west over in Mississippi......you do realize that once this squall line moves through that's it, right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, audioguy3107 said:

I hear ya, that would be important if it was 10 AM and the system was still to our west over in Mississippi......you do realize that once this squall line moves through that's it, right?

Yeah, I am aware of this.  However, my area is under a Tornado Warning because of the ingredients I was referencing earlier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, kayman said:

Yeah, I do understand that.  Now, my area is under a Tor Warning because of the ingredients I was referencing earlier.

Ok, ok, I’m not trying to argue, of course there can be warnings issued, small hail, various severe reports.  Of course that happens all the time....I’m talking about moderate/high risk events, large hail, PDS Tornado watches etc.  the real events.  The further south the Douglasville storm gets, the better the environment so it’s not all that surprising.  That being said, the couplet on that storm while strong is very broad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BTW, it’s well known on this board but man, Glenn Burns is awful.....he’s searching for rotation on all his fancy equipment and can’t find anything.  It took me about 10 seconds on an iPad.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agreed about Glenn burns. Unfortunately some damage likely occurring with this cell. Not exactly moving in to a good area either. Yikes 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, kayman said:

TDS is reported with South Fulton cell

Indeed. Even with a highly apparent 55dbz debris ball there for a frame. Likely tornado caused some type of significant damage it would appear to cause that type of a return.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Getting rocked here this evening. Worst of the storms passing just NE of here over South Fulton (near the Airport) down to Fayetteville, with 70 MPH wind, possible tornado and golf ball sized hail.

 

A train of additional storms just to the NW on the way.

 

A ton of lightning too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Boettger64 said:

Call me a dumb novice but am I seeing the beginning of rotation near Moreland?

Sent from my VS996 using Tapatalk
 

Definitely some rotation just west of Sharpsburg, must not be tight enough for the NWS to pull the trigger on a warning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Boettger64 said:

Call me a dumb novice but am I seeing the beginning of rotation near Moreland?

Sent from my VS996 using Tapatalk
 

Definitely possible. New cells were rapidly developing overhead as they passed over Newnan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Boettger64 said:

Call me a dumb novice but am I seeing the beginning of rotation near Moreland?

Sent from my VS996 using Tapatalk
 

Could be, cell has that classic kidney shape.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah the tornado went about 4 miles south of me.  It headed towards the Airport but disspated just before it got there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×