Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,393
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NW_of_GYX
    Newest Member
    NW_of_GYX
    Joined
LithiaWx

3/19/18 Dixie Alley severe outbreak

Recommended Posts

Check out this really nice satellite image from SPC, you can clearly see the orientation of the warm front, the developing low pressure and a sweet gravity wave over the western Gulf of Mexico.

 

 

1kmv.gif

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said:

Check out this really nice satellite image from SPC, you can clearly see the orientation of the warm front, the developing low pressure and a sweet gravity wave over the western Gulf of Mexico.

 

 

1kmv.gif

Is that a triple point developing?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

New Day-1 is out. MDT over north AL, and the 10% hatched TOR risk is wrapped around the south of the wedge and now includes ATL proper.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, a5ehren said:

New Day-1 is out. MDT over north AL, and the 10% hatched TOR risk is wrapped around the south of the wedge and now includes ATL proper.

Yep,  I’m in the moderate risk now and in the hatched area. Slightly skeptical for West GA but on guard for sure.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HRRR 16z really ramps the STP values for central/north Alabama. 1km storm relative helicity is 300-400 while 3km is 400-500

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

This cell still trying to be first with a tornado....struggling to keep a tight rotation going though....

Screenshot_20180319-142258.thumb.png.71fe745263843fe09b0465e6ec738cb9.png

That cell was elevated earlier, and since it appears like it's still north of the warm front, I think it still is.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

That cell was elevated earlier, and since it appears like it's still north of the warm front, I think it still is.

Tor warning on it just issued

Tornado Warning

Tornado Warning
ALC033-191915-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0001.180319T1838Z-180319T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
138 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Colbert County in northwestern Alabama...

* Until 215 PM CDT

* At 138 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Littleville, or near Tuscumbia, moving northeast
  at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Leighton around 145 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Colbert Heights, Northwest Alabama Regional Airport, Whiteoak and
Ford City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8749 3480 8743 3478 8743 3476 8742
      3474 8743 3471 8742 3470 8745 3465 8745
      3465 8748 3462 8750 3457 8773 3469 8777
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 245DEG 46KT 3465 8764

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, downeastnc said:

Tor warning on it just issued

Tornado Warning

Tornado Warning
ALC033-191915-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0001.180319T1838Z-180319T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
138 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Colbert County in northwestern Alabama...

* Until 215 PM CDT

* At 138 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Littleville, or near Tuscumbia, moving northeast
  at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Leighton around 145 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Colbert Heights, Northwest Alabama Regional Airport, Whiteoak and
Ford City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8749 3480 8743 3478 8743 3476 8742
      3474 8743 3471 8742 3470 8745 3465 8745
      3465 8748 3462 8750 3457 8773 3469 8777
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 245DEG 46KT 3465 8764

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

Apparently it's not elevated lol. Must be straddling the WF then. I thought it was well north.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still messy but given the environment it could produce a large long track tornado at any time now....most Hi Res runs had a long track super tracking east just along or south of the TN/AL border this afternoon

Screenshot_20180319-144126.thumb.png.fdffd7d896c7fc907f17f20adbbce763.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
   Mesoscale Discussion 0146
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

   Areas affected...Northeast MS...Northern AL...Southern TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 191906Z - 192030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Tornado watch will be issued by 21z across portions of the
   Mid-South. A few strong tornadoes are possible in addition to large
   hail.

   DISCUSSION...Leading edge of mid-level drying/cooling is progressing
   across the MS Delta region at roughly 35kt. Over the next few hours
   lapse rates should adjust across western TN/northeast MS and deep
   convection is expected to expand in response to this feature.
   Conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for strong supercell
   development as boundary-layer moisture is advancing into northern
   MS/AL with mid 60s surface dew points now evident at TUP into
   Winston county AL.

   Early-day thunderstorm cluster that spread across northern MS is now
   into northern AL and this convection may impede deeper moisture
   surge into the Middle TN region. However, a well-defined and
   increasingly buoyant east-west boundary draped across northern MS/AL
   should provide a focus for potentially tornadic supercells. Shear
   profiles are becoming quite strong across this region and it appears
   discrete storms will evolve over the next few hours in response to
   approaching short-wave trough. Environmental parameters appear
   supportive of potentially long-track tornadoes and this will be
   addressed within the next few hours with a tornado watch.

   ..Darrow/Grams.. 03/19/2018
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

Yep,  I’m in the moderate risk now and in the hatched area. Slightly skeptical for West GA but on guard for sure.

I would not underestimate these type of storm systems.  This is lining up to be a situation where we have to be on alert especially in West Georgia. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's a really shallow superadiabatic layer in the Birmingham sounding. The MLCAPE is < 1000 j/kg as a result.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote
SEL3

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 13
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   325 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northern and central Alabama
     Northeast Mississippi
     Southern Tennessee

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
       inches in diameter likely
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Several severe storms will develop along a cold front
   through this evening producing strong tornadoes, very large hail,
   and damaging winds.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 15 miles south of Tupelo MS to 45
   miles northeast of Gadsden AL. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 25040.

   ...Grams

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another Tornado Watch just issued, for areas north of the PDS watch in Tennessee

Quote
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 14
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   340 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northern Middle Tennessee

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible

   SUMMARY...A few severe storms should develop east through the
   evening with a risk for large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 35 miles south of Clarksville TN to
   70 miles east of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

 

DANG! That's going over Florence, Al. Their luck instability wasn't very high at that time.

  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Muscle Shoals/Tuscumbia/Sheffield/Florence area has another one knocking on the door now.  It's been producing funnel clouds since first TOR-warned a couple of counties ago in MS.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Supercell just north of Tupelo, MS and supercell just west of Shannon, MS appear to be the next ones that'll go. Both are starting to develop "that look" on reflectivity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, downeastnc said:

 

WOW! thanks for posting this! @downeastnc, you can watch the  "spin" counterclock wise on that T-Storm... In the Mid-levels.. Fascinating! While the lower level wind|(s|) are going... stationary to north?

Our Area looks to be Moderately "high" tomorrow for severe WX..  

With "Flurries!" on the backside.. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Franklin County in northwestern Alabama...
  Southwestern Lawrence County in northwestern Alabama...

* Until 600 PM CDT

* At 519 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Red Bay, moving
  east at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail. 

  SOURCE...Emergency Management confirmed tornado. 

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Russellville, Red Bay, Phil Campbell, Belgreen, Vina, Hodges, Mt
  Hope, Cedar Creek Reservoir, Atwood and Tharptown.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fairly tight rain-wrapped couplet just west of Russellville on the northern storm.

Things *should* start popping off here in the next hour or so, as these supercells beginning to move into an area where surface winds are backed. Counting on that storm modes can stay at least semi-discrete.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×