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Rjay

March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat

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TWC just downgraded snowfall forecasts for the big cities; still has 8-12" for NNJ/NYC, but was 12-18" before.  Cantore said the inland low closed off and will rob the ocean low of moisture reducing precip (seen on almost every model last night including the Euro).  Bust potential is pretty high for Upton and somewhat high for Mt. Holly (vs. their lowered amounts), especially in spring with snow falling during the day - we really need good rates of 1" per hour to ensure we accumulate well (melting rate is at least 1/2" per hour this time of year); at least surface temps ought to cool to at or below 32F, reducing melting some vs. previous storms.  I hope I'm wrong, but that's what my gut tells me.  

Here's the fundamental problem in spring.  if you get 1" per hour rates for 10 hours, you'll likely get 8-9" of snow, since you'll overcome the melting rate quickly and accumulate rather easily with minimal melting, especially if air temps are below 32F.  But if you get 1/2" per hour rates for 10 hours, you probably end up a slushy inch on the ground, since the melting rate is so close to the snowfall rate the entire time.  

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I'm surprised that Upton is putting out such high totals for such a large area, a floor of 12 seems awfully high, it should be the ceiling.  The trend on all the models outside the NAM has been a less dynamic further east jackpot so I can understand why there's some concern about the higher totals. I'm debating about heading into work now, I guess I'll take the chance. 

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Usually I think the dry air is good cause it's drier snow and it's good that the ground is not even wet so it may evaporatively cool the column rather quick and start accumulating once it gets cranking, combined with wet numbing and eventually dynamic cooling. Every storm this month we had wet ground and warm ground to work with. I think the rates are going to be higher with this and this is why Upton is sticking to their guns I think

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6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

correlation coefficient is picking up on pellets at JFK, etc.

5ab23a0535f37_ScreenShot2018-03-21at6_54_03AM.png.2f1821fe2eb75cb6e2066e69eac534d0.png

I'm under it, it's snowing well, no sleet .  Only sticking on grass and cars currently.

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Ok so I checked out both the 06z NAM and GFS.... looks to have the area in the .75-1.25” LE which extends as far north as parts of extreme Northern NJ and up to I84 then down through CT and into Long Island. So with that said the area looks good for a 5-12 inch snowfall with definitely isolated up to 15” in random spots. Guys that’s great for March 21st. Main action isn’t until early afternoon into the evening time. Stop the bickering and enjoy it!!

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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Temperatures should drop to the 29/30 range given current temps and dews, so there shouldn't be any problems with accumulating.

Latest HRRR is really aggressive.

Can you post the recent HRRR?

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2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I'm at my shop in Greenpoint. Moderate snow right now. Probably half mile visibility or so.

cool. that image didn't show pellets in greenpoint. just south bk/qns, within a mile or two of the south shore.

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14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Temperatures should drop to the 29/30 range given current temps and dews, so there shouldn't be any problems with accumulating.

Latest HRRR is really aggressive.

I would not call this "really aggressive".  Widespread 6"-9" DC-NYC nice for March, no doubt...or anytime really.  Good news is snow is still falling at this time, a few more hours likely, especially east of city.  After dark will help with accumulations.  I think really aggressive would be misleading, IMO, but YMMV!  Good luck, all! 

hrrr.snku_acc.us_ne.2018032106-loop.gif

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8 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Can you post the recent HRRR?

See my last post...fwiw, snow is still falling, especially east of the city at that time, so final totals would go up some.

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3 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said:

I would not call this "really aggressive".  Widespread 6"-9" DC-NYC nice for March, no doubt...or anytime really.  I think really aggressive would be misleading, IMO, but YMMV!  Good luck, all! 

hrrr.snku_acc.us_ne.2018032106-loop.gif

That's old. 10z coming in juiced.

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5 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said:

I would not call this "really aggressive".  Widespread 6"-9" nice for March, no doubt...or anytime really.  I think really aggressive would be misleading, IMO, but YMMV!  Good luck, all! 

hrrr.snku_acc.us_ne.2018032106-loop.gif

The HRRR doesn't go out to nearly the end of the storm. 

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1 minute ago, tempestatis014 said:

Just my luck. I wake up and look at the models and GFS ***** the bed. It's saying 3". That little blip of blue near east- central NJ.

 

I never look at models when the ETA of an event is less than 6 hours away. So the last cycle I took into consideration was the 18z from yesterday.

Do you have to show up to work by the way?

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1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said:

That’s through 7-8pm only

Duly noted in my follow up post...and my OP updated as well.  HRRR only goes to 18 so can't post anything further out in time until next run comes out, let's hope for increases through the day.  What the models take away they can give back!

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1 minute ago, Capt. Adam said:

Duly noted in my follow up post...and my OP updated as well.  HRRR only goes to 18 so can't post anything further out in time until next run comes out, let's hope for increases through the day.  What the models take away they can give back!

That's 4 runs ago anyway. 10z has almost 1.5" LE for city 1.75" for Nassau. 

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

That's 4 runs ago anyway. 10z has almost 1.5" LE for city 1.75" for Nassau. 

Good trends this morning. Best banding will hopefully be NW of guidance and we backed off some of the warmer solutions. 

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3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

That's 4 runs ago anyway. 10z has almost 1.5" LE for city 1.75" for Nassau. 

Last map I posted was the 06Z...sorry about that...here is the 09Z out to 18 hrs...so this will be through 11 pm...not much additional in that 3 hour period...only another inch or so city and west...good improvement east as noted above...pretty consistent with the 6"-12" maps posted yesterday, IMO. 

hrrr.snku_acc.us_ne.2018032109-loop.gif

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4 minutes ago, Hailstorm said:

I never look at models when the ETA of an event is less than 6 hours away. So the last cycle I took into consideration was the 18z from yesterday.

Do you have to show up to work by the way?

I am not that far through age yet ;) 1 more year. 

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1 minute ago, Capt. Adam said:

Last map I posted was the 06Z...sorry about that...here is the 09Z out to 18 hrs...so this will be through 11 pm...not much additional in that 3 hour period...only another inch or so...pretty consistent with the 6"-12" maps posted yesterday, IMO. 

hrrr.snku_acc.us_ne.2018032109-loop.gif

10z is considerably more juiced. Take my word for it, I'm not even going with big totals . 

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