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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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2 minutes ago, Mophstymeo said:

You know what will settle this? The actual storm. Tomorrow. We all know where you guys stand. I think we should leave it there, line drawn in the sand, and we'll come back on Weds night or Thurs morning and crown the victor of this dogged fight.

Will the crown be made of weiners? 

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I cant with some of you on here

Every model has a 8-12 inch snow event for the area. 

The complaining on here is terrible.

That's not true at all. Every model might have it at 10:1 while including sleet, but that's not realistic based on the runs. 

If you use Kuchera or snow depth, most models are below that range. 

The majority of the 5 boroughs, and especially Manhattan need it quite a bit cooler than the current runs are showing in order to get near 8 inches. 

 

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

I see no way surface temps are an issue in this with the high to the north and that N-NE wind developing 

 

What do you make of your colleague's concern about 1/2 in rates? This is not meant to make it a contest, I'm more interested in how each of you come to your conclusions. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Oh hey, just had the privilege of deleting about 20 posts of garbage and bickering. 

Keep it civil and analysis based or I will delete it. This is ridiculous. 

Looked like more than 20.   Guys stop it and pick up the quality of your posts.    

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10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

He has support from at least one meteorologist here....I have seen enough March storms fizzle that I am not completely convinced something won't go wrong ( or right if you prefer less snow, as most people do ). I'm quite weary from reading double digit prognostications over the years that went nowhere. That said, since a workday is already blown tomorrow, I hope we get at least a solid 6 inches, which would be perhaps my highest this year.

And there are other meterologists (I include JM in there whose opinion I hold with the utmost respect) and most of the models that say otherwise. Anyway, I'm going to take this further because it's banter but yes, there is bust potential both ways as is the case with most storms for us on the coast.  However, this one seems like it'll be different than your normal late March storm so we'll see.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Yea like I am the only one that thinks nyc will get alot of snow. There are plenty of Mets who think so also and of course on other forums .

I don't get why some people are being conservative .

We will see

Right now NWS agrees with you too. I think we have seen some storms not deliver and some wobbles in the models are making people question it. Me, I don't know enough about them to say, I can only go by what people are posting.

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Just now, kat5hurricane said:

And there are other meterologists (I include JM in there whose opinion I hold with the utmost respect) and most of the models that say otherwise. Anyway, I'm going to take this further because it's banter but yes, there is bust potential both ways as is the case with most storms for us on the coast.

Sure. I mean we can't predict an outcome 100 %. But this is confusing for those of us without the training.

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1 minute ago, Mophstymeo said:

Partly derived, I think, from our experiences with the last three storms. Hey, I'm analyzing . . . human behavior.

I get it.  Our issue is temps.  In NYC/Hoboken, you really have to get temps below freezing to get accumulations going.  Well, right now we have temps in the upper 30s, and the models seem to indicate warmer temps than previously advertised.  If this verifies, it's going to be the temperatures moreso than the banding that will present issues.

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

Right now NWS agrees with you too. I think we have seen some storms not deliver and some wobbles in the models are making people question it. Me, I don't know enough about them to say, I can only go by what people are posting.

You are right

We have been screwed this month and everyone is frustrated but this storm is going to be colder for the coast than the last 3.  Every model except the Nam and rgem to an extent have mostly snow tomorrow and a long duration of it.

Gfs has 8-12 for the area with banding in LI. It is further east than the Nam . Inland areas get less.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I would give more weight to the mesos at this range. IE NAM and RGEM. The GFS has been all over the place, so has the German and the GGEM. The Euro has been consistently too far offshore.

Nam also has been all over and Wpc just tossed it lol

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I would give more weight to the mesos at this range. IE NAM and RGEM. The GFS has been all over the place, so has the German and the GGEM. The Euro has been consistently too far offshore.

It's hard to give the NAM a ton of weight when it is bouncing around like a ping pong ball from run to run.  There is no consistency there.  I'm not saying toss it - I mean, it shows a great outcome for the NYC area anyway - but it's hard to trust a model when there are huge run to run variations.

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1 minute ago, NYCGreg said:

It's hard to give the NAM a ton of weight when it is bouncing around like a ping pong ball from run to run.  There is no consistency there.  I'm not saying toss it - I mean, it shows a great outcome for the NYC area anyway - but it's hard to trust a model when there are huge run to run variations.

It really hasn’t changed since 12z

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