Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

Recommended Posts

20 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Calling @donsutherland1.  This isn't accurate but I'm way too tired to dig up your stats. 

What’s not accurate?  Here’s the top five:

3/12-14/1888 = 20.9”

3/07-09/1941 = 18.1”

3/03-05/1960 = 14.6”

3/01-02/1914 = 14.5”

3/16-16/1896 = 12.0”

Number 10 = 3/02/1896 = 10.0”

4/03-04/1915 = 10.2” would be #10 if it’s March or later storms.  

EDIT: Here’s the link to resource used to tabulate list:

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=okx

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

That was a crazy change from the NAM and you have to toss it for the moment.  The Euro has had a SE bias with the last few events so the NWS may be playing into that idea somewhat because even the ensembles would only argue for around 6 inches.  The totals they have look somewhat high but the NAM for now I think is a toss 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

What’s not accurate?  Here’s the top five:

3/12-14/1888 = 20.9”

3/07-09/1941 = 18.1”

3/03-05/1960 = 14.6”

3/01-02/1914 = 14.5”

3/16-16/1896 = 12.0”

Number 10 = 3/02/1896 = 10.0”

4/03-04/1915 = 10.2” would be #10 if it’s March or later storms.  

EDIT: Here’s the link to resource used to tabulate list:

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=okx

I posted this yesterday. Of course there are many March snowstorms greater than the ones I listed below and you listed them above. This was just the 8 biggest after the spring equinox. I think that's why some were confused.

There are only eight snowfalls of 6 inches or greater after the spring equinox in New York City. Also interesting to note here there have been 30 snowfalls 6 inches or greater in the month of March in New York City but only one between March 22 and March 31 but seven from April 1 through April 13. Just a curious weird anomaly. If it does happen on Wednesday it is more or less a one in twenty-year occurrence to happen in spring in New York City.

6 inch Spring Snowfalls in NYC

1.....10.2.....April 3-4, 1915
2.....10.0.....April 13, 1875
3.......9.6.....April 6, 1982
4.......9.0.....March 22, 1967
5.......8.5.....April 1, 1924
6.......6.5.....April 5, 1944
7.......6.5.....April 8-9, 1917
8.......6.4.....April 6-7, 1938

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, doncat said:

Just seems that nws 12-18" forecast is very questionable regardless of which model you use or which run.

That seems a little high IMO, at least for right now. Mt.Holly went a little less here, 8-14" which I think is more reasonable. I also don't think we should be so quick to toss the 06z NAM but it was a pretty wild swing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

That seems a little high IMO, at least for right now. Mt.Holly went a little less here, 8-14" which I think is more reasonable. I also don't think we should be so quick to toss the 06z NAM but it was a pretty wild swing.

Most likely it over corrected SE. Considering non of the 6z guidance agrees with it but we will see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, tdenzler said:

Latest GFS refuses to give up the ghost... Over 1.5"+ for many in tristate.

GFS has been horrible so I think it best to take with a grain of salt...

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk
 

Gfs has support from the rgem Ukie and German.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Could be noise
We will see but even Upton thinks the coast will be the favorites with the heaviest snow. I would have went with 6-12 instead of 12-16.
Upton has 12-18" for white plains... They see mixing at coast...

Obviously that was before the latest models.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gfs has support from the rgem Ukie and German.
Correct... but... NAM has been so much better than most this year... Especially over the last 3.

Hard to ignore it.

Next suite of models will be very telling.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, tdenzler said:

Correct... but... NAM has been so much better than most this year... Especially over the last 3.

Hard to ignore it.

Next suite of models will be very telling.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk
 

I'd treat it as literal word if it was consistent, that's usually when it's right.  If everything went perfectly NYC would seriously struggle to see 8". There's a reason why 12" storms haven't happened this time of the year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • BxEngine locked this topic
  • Rjay unlocked this topic
  • Rjay unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...