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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

It’s the coldest storm of the last 4, that’s why I’m going bullish with 4-8” in NYC. I can also see how the best banding stays over the interior and the city gets stuck in subsidence 

Welcome to 3 storms in a row lol

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Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

i understand that, but you specifically said interior...the interior with those soundings is not gonna be 7:1..... i just snowed at 34 degrees and marginal 850 and accumulated 19" no problem

On how much liquid? And the interior is more than just your backyard or Animals. I had 21” here on like 2.5” LE. That’s less than 10:1.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s the coldest storm of the last 4, that’s why I’m going bullish with 4-8” in NYC. I can also see how the best banding stays over the interior and the city gets stuck in subsidence 

We will not know about the banding until the storm gets cranking.

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One thing to consider with this storm in terms of ratios is that mid level temps were much colder, really only he surface was in question. We won't have that level of mid-level cold in this storm, at the very least near the beginning

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Just now, NewYorkweatherfan said:

No it doesnt. Jan 2018 no problem sticking anywhere. 

Yeah, pointing out a blizzard isn't fair. Everyone here knows the problems Manhattan has accumulating. Obviously Northern Manhattan fares better with more vegetation, less subways, and elevation.

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1 minute ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

No it doesnt. Jan 2018 no problem sticking anywhere. 

Yeah. Just about every snowflake accumulated near the Battery.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

On how much liquid? And the interior is more than just your backyard or Animals. I had 21” here on like 2.5” LE. That’s less than 10:1.

Ridgewood had about 10" on similar LE. The differences as you get further north and west can be pretty astounding.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

We will not know about the banding until the storm gets cranking.

Having been through the last 3, I still wouldn't go 3-6 or 4-8 just because it's the city. Gambler's fallacy. If it's as cold as the models say with that much precip, it'll stick. 

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5 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

The ground has been cold...dont forget it's been unusually cold I don't think we'll have problems sticking even in Manhattan if temps are below 32 like nam says. Nam snow map and rap remind me of Jan 2016 blizzard 

The temperature hit 46 degrees today in Central Park and 42 yesteday.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Yes but if you look at 500b, it’s over the interior. Bernie mentioned that in his periscope. He’s going 2-4” in NYC.

That's a good call, this is largely a daytime main event too.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Yes but if you look at 500b, it’s over the interior. Bernie mentioned that in his periscope. He’s going 2-4” in NYC.

I like Bernie but that's irresponsible. I'm not saying that doesn't verify, but guidance doesn't support that. 

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2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah, pointing out a blizzard isn't fair. Everyone here knows the problems Manhattan has accumulating. Obviously Northern Manhattan fares better with more vegetation, less subways, and elevation.

The only reason why we didn't accumulate the last 3 storms I'll tell you is because we were 33-35 degrees. I swear if we were below freezing we would have been fine

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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I like Bernie but that's irresponsible. I'm not saying that doesn't verify, but guidance doesn't support that. 

It does if you look at positive depth change maps instead of 10:1

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1 minute ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

The only reason why we didn't accumulate the last 3 storms I'll tell you is because we were 33-35 degrees. I swear if we were below freezing we would have been fine

We didn't even need that. We would've done fine without subsidence. That lull killed us. 

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2 minutes ago, larrye said:

The temperature hit 46 degrees today in Central Park and 42 yesteday.

And 20s tonight and 30s tomorrow. Plus a layer of sleet for the first few hours

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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I like Bernie but that's irresponsible. I'm not saying that doesn't verify, but guidance doesn't support that. 

It’s a little conservative, but not by a lot. Learn from the last 3 storms. This storm has a colder surface, but all kinds of warm layers aloft. The coast could lose a lot to sleet.

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2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

That's a good call, this is largely a daytime main event too.

That's too low 

This storm will feature banding which who knows where they will set up. H5 is going to close off and the storm will stall and rot.

I think Upton has the right idea with 8-12 inches.

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2 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

The only reason why we didn't accumulate the last 3 storms I'll tell you is because we were 33-35 degrees. I swear if we were below freezing we would have been fine

That big gaseous ball in the sky has other ideas.

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

It does if you look at positive depth change maps instead of 10:1

For solely the NAM, perhaps. But a lot of other guidance is colder. 

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Bernie and BW can go with whatever they want in NYC.  Judging by the last few storms, it's hard to be bullish in NYC when the NWS busted big time on the last two.  Nonetheless, my primary - though not only - concern would be surface temps.  If temps are in the upper 20s to 30 (and sometimes those temps are even overdone), we can get the mid-level temps down, even if it through dynamic cooling.  And sometimes the models underestimate that as well.  I guess we'll have to wait and see.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

It’s a little conservative, but not by a lot. Learn from the last 3 storms. This storm has a colder surface, but all kinds of warm layers aloft. The coast could lose a lot to sleet.

Sleet will make the snow stick easier.

Also , rgem is alot colder than the Nam. The  nam is the warmest so far.

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Well one of the reasons is it was April 6, which is over 2 weeks later than this one, it was the Yankees opening day, which was delayed three days because of the snow, and NYC received a foot of snow, forget the so called official 9.6 bull sh1t in Central Park, and it was in the mid to upper 20's throughtout most of the storm. I received a foot and a half in Rockland. On April 6th that's memorable. If it happens March 21, still memorable but not nearly as.

I was in Manhattan that day on a day off from school.  Getting off the train at Penn station and crossing the street at 34th street the streets were covered, air was filled with swirling, blowing snow and we heard loud thunder.  It was the real deal...nothing at all like the recent wet snows...and on April 6th.  A repeat in April would shut the sun anglers up.  Some LI photos here (apologies in advance that the outdated html kinda sucks):

http://www.northshorewx.com/19820406.html

 

19820407-4cE.jpg

 

 

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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

We didn't even need that. We would've done fine without subsidence. That lull killed us. 

The track of the ULL is similar to the second storm, maybe a tick SE.

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4 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

The only reason why we didn't accumulate the last 3 storms I'll tell you is because we were 33-35 degrees. I swear if we were below freezing we would have been fine

And we missed the banding

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Sleet will make the snow stick easier.

Also , rgem is alot colder than the Nam. The  nam is the warmest so far.

I agree that there won’t be a lot of white rain with this system, but conservative is the way to go.

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11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s the coldest storm of the last 4, that’s why I’m going bullish with 4-8” in NYC. I can also see how the best banding stays over the interior and the city gets stuck in subsidence 

If NYC gets into the banding, 4-8 will be conservative if anything.  Of course, most of that will come down to nowcasting.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

I agree that there won’t be a lot of white rain with this system, but conservative is the way to go.

Yeah 5:1 and 6:1 is about the best one could hope for in NYC

 

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