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Rjay

March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat

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Stalled and snowing itself out Wednesday night as the run ends. You could see the positive changes at H5 as the confluence pulls out much faster, over Maine by Thursday morning.

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4 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said:

NWS in Mount Holly is saying a big bust. 1-2 inches, yet every storm they got wrong

and they will probably stick with that forecast until tomorrow but it now looks like this has the potential to be a historic snowstorm for the second half of March

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

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1 hour ago, allgame830 said:

Can you post an image of the EPS members I am having an issue locating it? I can only see the mean SLP placement. Thanks 

Several of the EPS members were very close to the 18z NAM tucked in track.

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That my friends is about as gorgeous as you’re going to get if you’re looking for maximum snow coverage where nobody really gets screwed.

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1 minute ago, sferic said:

Too much NW trending can LI/NYC/Coastal regions be talking mixing issues or RAIN?

according to Upton its going to be all snow

SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT  
AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THERMAL PROFILES AND  
SURFACE WETBULB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MAINLY/IF NOT ALL SNOW.

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

according to Upton its going to be all snow

SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT  
AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THERMAL PROFILES AND  
SURFACE WETBULB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MAINLY/IF NOT ALL SNOW.

We had all snow - or basically all snow - last storm as well.  We need it to be below freezing for it to stick.  If it is too warm, it's going to be white rain.

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

The storm just sits there for about 18 hours snowing itself out. Looks sleety for the coast and city at the start though

Yeah but that was really the perfect track as everyone flips to snow. I really don’t understand why people are so consumed with a little sleet when they still get a lot of snow. This isn’t North Dakota.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Yeah but that was really the perfect track as everyone flips to snow. I really don’t understand why people are so consumed with a little sleet when they still get a lot of snow. This isn’t North Dakota.

I'm not concerned but also have to take that into account when looking at accumulation maps

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1 minute ago, NYCGreg said:

We had all snow - or basically all snow - last storm as well.  We need it to be below freezing for it to stick.  If it is too warm, it's going to be white rain.

NYC should be 32-33 during the height of the storm. 20’s up here.

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2 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

We had all snow - or basically all snow - last storm as well.  We need it to be below freezing for it to stick.  If it is too warm, it's going to be white rain.

Incorrect. I was at 34-35 during the whole storm and I ended up with 16". Good rates can result in accumulations even above freezing 

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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm not concerned but also have to take that into account when looking at accumulation maps

This is the first storm in awhile that has true, dry cold air with it. There should be less mixing issues.

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