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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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34 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

*includes sleet*

how can so many people be too dumb to notice those words

Since I haven't seen any significant accumulation of sleet from any storm this season - I doubt we will see it this time around - precip type is going to be mainly snow or rain or a combo

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14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Fwiw ICON looks good but favors the interior with a change to rain at the coast

The GFS favors the interior too, until you get into Wednesday night. That's when the coast receives most of its snow. Before then is a lot of mixed precip.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We may get a Euro run soon that is really suppressed. That may not be a bad thing since it would leave room for a late correction north without being too warm.

I don't understand this obsession with a late correction North. That doesn't happen with every storm despite how it's portrayed.

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3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Since I haven't seen any significant accumulation of sleet from any storm this season - I doubt we will see it this time around - precip type is going to be mainly snow or rain or a combo

The GFS is picking up on the CAD into Northern Long Island. The introduction of a developing high pressure system has increased the chances for frozen.

gfs_T850_neus_19.png

sketched_5aabf99fc8acd.png

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It's a common bias with the models. Snowfall JP's usually creep N and W from the 120 hr EPS/Euro position. The unknown with every storm is at what point the NW shift stops. You need to embrace some degree of day 5 suppression for the coastal posters to get the best snow potential. 

The GFS is fine right where it is.

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We may get a Euro run soon that is really suppressed. That may not be a bad thing since it would leave room for a late correction north without being too warm.

Exactly where we want to be at this juncture. Every single event has trended nw from this time period.

more cold available this time. Could this finally be the storm the coast comes through...

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

You mean 534 line

No, the 534 line is even further North. The GGEM tries to push a piece of the developing high into Central NE before consolidating it over Ontario. The GGEM is a joke of a model, but by all means, keep using it. I don't even know why I bother posting here.

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