Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Finally snowing moderately after hours of sleet and no precipitation. Eyeballing 3in. Think too many throwing in the towel for the storm when the worst was modeled between now and overnight. Radar does look to be improving off shore and hopefully that will push through with better rates. Still believe 10in or so possible in my backyard. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Snow growth/rates around my area have improved markedly over the last half hour and that's without any strong banding.

Hopefully it improves for everyone.

Good to hear. Flakes are big but too sparse for their radar presentation. With the way the moisture is oriented, I'm thinking that better lift should come up my way. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Yeah I got that but what causes that? High level warmth? 

Kind of. Essentially what happens is that the best omega is below the snow growth region. In other words, there is shallow lift. When there is shallow lift, the snow tends to form at lower ratios and therefore it is less dense, thus lower accumulations. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said:

CODGOES16-meso-meso1.dcphase.20180321.205503-map-glm_flash.thumb.gif.34f712ef990eab4d82fce299434f85dc.gif

This gives you a good idea of the cloud heights at different levels

This is a great image for showing what I was saying in regards to shallow lift vs higher vertical velocities leading to better snow growth. Ideally you want cloud tops below -15C to for a significant chance of optimal snow growth. Where the higher cloud tops, they are thus cooler and also have better vertical velocities. In addittion to promoting higher intensities, this also gives a better chance for snow growth as the particles are much more likely to reach the optimal omega region. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • BxEngine locked this topic
  • Rjay unlocked this topic
On 3/20/2018 at 5:04 PM, NJwx85 said:

I put a lot of thought into this, final call

Inside the pink line - 1-3"

Inside the light blue line - 2-5"

Inside the dark blue line - 4-8"

Inside the green line - 5-10"

Inside the red line - 6-12"

Locally higher amounts possible in banding. Wouldn't shock me if someone pulled out 18", however confidence is below average on the higher amounts.

sketched_5ab1769a489ca.png

 

I just saw this and I just had to comment my apologies for being a week late but I've been busy.

This was the single worst forecast for the coast in this history of this board and that's saying something 

I have to imagine that it's just a complete lack of understanding on how the coast snows/ works,  but it's a mistake that you make year after year.

You seem to think that it doesn't snow heavily in Monmouth County and across  Long Island and it's not just this storm you do it with every storm.

You seem to be stuck with the idea that no matter what the event is higher totals don't exist on the coastal plain.

Monmouth County received 12 to 14 inches and parts of Long Island got 12 to 20 with this and those totals were pretty well modeled.

There wasn't any guidance that called for 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 inches those areas that you outline.

You really to figure out what your reoccurring error is when forecasting  snow for the coastal plain or maybe next year just don't bother.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

I just saw this and I just had to comment my apologies for being a week late but I've been busy.

This was the single worst forecast for the coast in this history of this board and that's saying something 

I have to imagine that it's just a complete lack of understanding on how the coast snows/ works,  but it's a mistake that you make year after year.

You seem to think that it doesn't snow heavily in Monmouth County and across  Long Island and it's not just this storm you do it with every storm.

You seem to be stuck with the idea that no matter what the event is higher totals don't exist on the coastal plain.

Monmouth County received 12 to 14 inches and parts of Long Island got 12 to 20 with this and those totals were pretty well modeled.

There wasn't any guidance that called for 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 inches those areas that you outline.

You really to figure out what your reoccurring error is when forecasting  snow for the coastal plain or maybe next year just don't bother.

 

Too much emphasis on climo.  Yes inland historically does better over the course of a season, but you can't apply that to every single storm.    Also, the coast has done incredibly well over the past 15-18 years compared to long term climo.   Locally here, we have been above normal in the snowfall department 16 of 18 years and not just a few inches above normal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

I just saw this and I just had to comment my apologies for being a week late but I've been busy.

This was the single worst forecast for the coast in this history of this board and that's saying something 

I have to imagine that it's just a complete lack of understanding on how the coast snows/ works,  but it's a mistake that you make year after year.

You seem to think that it doesn't snow heavily in Monmouth County and across  Long Island and it's not just this storm you do it with every storm.

You seem to be stuck with the idea that no matter what the event is higher totals don't exist on the coastal plain.

Monmouth County received 12 to 14 inches and parts of Long Island got 12 to 20 with this and those totals were pretty well modeled.

There wasn't any guidance that called for 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 inches those areas that you outline.

You really to figure out what your reoccurring error is when forecasting  snow for the coastal plain or maybe next year just don't bother.

 

I made that call around 24 hours prior to the start of the storm and then all the guidance shifted Southeast. I knew that my forecast was in serious trouble and it was acknowledged 3 or 4 times by me if you had been paying attention. Rather than redrawing a new forecast, I let it be.

I know you and some others feel I have some bias against the coast, I do not. I tell it like it is and I put forth a lot of effort into making those forecasts. 

With the prior three storms I had some minor issues, but for the most part I’ve nailed the axis of heaviest snowfall.

Everyone busts from time to time and I don’t appreciate you coming on here a week later no less, and trying to single me out as some biased hack. Shame on you sir.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Too much emphasis on climo.  Yes inland historically does better over the course of a season, but you can't apply that to every single storm.    Also, the coast has done incredibly well over the past 15-18 years compared to long term climo.   Locally here, we have been above normal in the snowfall department 16 of 18 years and not just a few inches above normal.

Many, many mets with advanced degrees and with much more experience than I have, busted badly with the last storm if you look at 24 hours out.

Maybe if the site wasn’t constantly crashing I could have posted a revised forecast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Rjay unpinned this topic
6 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

I made that call around 24 hours prior to the start of the storm and then all the guidance shifted Southeast. I knew that my forecast was in serious trouble and it was acknowledged 3 or 4 times by me if you had been paying attention. Rather than redrawing a new forecast, I let it be.

I know you and some others feel I have some bias against the coast, I do not. I tell it like it is and I put forth a lot of effort into making those forecasts. 

With the prior three storms I had some minor issues, but for the most part I’ve nailed the axis of heaviest snowfall.

Everyone busts from time to time and I don’t appreciate you coming on here a week later no less, and trying to single me out as some biased hack. Shame on you sir.

I think you have a natural bias and you let it show in your forecasting.

We all bust man and the post isn't about a bad call , its more about a predetermined bad background idea that you seem to carry with you from storm to storm for the coast.

There was nothing that said 1.5 LE with - 4 at 850 and 22 degree DPs equated to 1 to 3 inches of snow along the coast.

Your  reasoning conflicted with the entire set up.

I don't think you know how Monmouth County and the N shore of LI act during east coast cycolgenesis.

It's not the error man it's the bias and it's why you argue so much in here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

I think you have a natural bias and you let it show in your forecasting.

We all bust man and the post isn't about a bad call , its more about a predetermined bad background idea that you seem to carry with you from storm to storm for the coast.

There was nothing that said 1.5 LE with - 4 at 850 and 22 degree DPs equated to 1 to 3 inches of snow along the coast.

Your  reasoning conflicted with the entire set up.

I don't think you know how Monmouth County and the N shore of LI act during east coast cycolgenesis.

It's not the error man it's the bias and it's why you argue so much in here.

The forecast I put out was unbiased. And the storm shifted Southeast during the last few hours. 

I argue with people on here because many live in fantasy land and post contradictory, false information which others grab onto and then it spreads like wild fire.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...