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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

10z is considerably more juiced. Take my word for it, I'm not even going with big totals . 

It easily has over a foot for the metro and it's not done snowing at the end of its run.

Take it with a grain of salt though.

It's focusing the energy to the low closest to us again like yesterday's models showed. If that's correct, then we would easily get 12"+ totals.

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

10z is considerably more juiced. Take my word for it, I'm not even going with big totals . 

Yes, agreed.  Same time period, through 11 pm...better for city and east and northern Jersey shore...but again, I think 6"-12" for most is a good expectation...locally higher amounts...modeling consistent on this imo.

hrrr.snku_acc.us_ne.2018032110-loop.gif

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14 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said:

I am not that far through age yet ;) 1 more year. 

For the sake of helping validate the HRRR, the 10Z run drops almost 3" on you (Toms River, northern Ocean County) by 9 am...let's see how that plays out. Radar just filled in there so let's see.  3 hours out, that is timeframe HRRR is supposed to perform great, let us know!

hrrr.snku_acc.us_ne.2018032110-loop(1).gif

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Love to see that convection in South Jersey get here.

both RAP and HRRR show really nice lapse rates developing from the delmarva and southern jersey to just south/southeast of long island later in the afternoon. definitely a non-zero chance for thundersnow ~4-9PM. there is a lot of drying in the snow growth region prior to that, so a lull appears fairly likely, or at least poor ratios and small/grainy snowflakes late morning and early afternoon. 

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4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

both RAP and HRRR show really nice lapse rates developing from the delmarva and southern jersey to just south/southeast of long island later in the afternoon. definitely a non-zero chance for thundersnow ~4-9PM. there is a lot of drying in the snow growth region prior to that, so a lull appears fairly likely, or at least poor ratios and small/grainy snowflakes late morning and early afternoon. 

What are your thoughts for the NJ suburbs 15-25 Miles west of the city?  I’m in central Union County.  Just interested in expectations and possible interest there.

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28 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said:

For the sake of helping validate the HRRR, the 10Z run drops almost 3" on you (Toms River, northern Ocean County) by 9 am...let's see how that plays out. Radar just filled in there so let's see.  3 hours out, that is timeframe HRRR is supposed to perform great, let us know!

hrrr.snku_acc.us_ne.2018032110-loop(1).gif

Just started sleeting now. I'm running for 6-10" when it's done. My thermometer says 29 right now and took an infared scan of my road, which is salted to the point of the Booneville salt flats, it's at 31 degrees.

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