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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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Just now, Snow88 said:

I need 1 more inch to break 30 and 11 more to break 40

Yeah we were worried about NYC reaching 30" this year but there is a real shot at 40" and this may not be the last storm for the season either.  Could be chances of storm right through the first half of April.

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Just talking verbage in the WSW. Was 11 to 15 now its 12-18.

Yeah I was kind of surprised in the Mt Holly statement for up to 25" of snow and 3" W.E. but I guess more precip is expected out that way (and colder temps.)

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

Mt Holly updated their snow map it seems...unless this is just an interim update...all they did was shrink the zones a bit, so not much change...still the big numbers n central.

StormTotalSnowWeb.thumb.png.5b6c8f0d0d48afa3e5c7eb86b5bbd9a0.png

Actually that's a fairly significant reduction across the board by a few to several inches...Anyone seen an updated map from Upton?  

 

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Well, no map, but Upton says 12-18" still for most of their CWA...

National Weather Service New York NY
446 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper low continues to march toward the east coast, with
coastal low development noted just east of the Delmarva.

With an expected track of the sfc low near the 40N/70W
benchmark along with strong deep lift and banded precip, the
stage is set or a major winter storm for the area. Colder and
drier air is in place when compared to previous events. Nam, and
lesser extent GFS along with various ensemble members indicate
slight warming aloft for a possible wintry mix over SE LI, and
perhaps SE CT through the morning. The storm has slowed a bit,
and heavier precip will allow for ample cooling to result in a
changeover by afternoon over these eastern locales. Colder air
will be pulled down from the north as the storm deepens.

Elsewhere, NYC metro including NE NJ, the lower Hudson Valley
and into SW CT, would typically be in the bulls eye of heavier
snow conceptually. Always hard to pinpoint any potential bands,
but generally expect 12 to 18 inches across these locations if
everything pans out as expected (track, thermal profiles, etc).

Temps in the 30s remain steady or fall as the heavier snow
commences. Snow ratios look to be at least 10 to 1, and even 13
to 1 or 15 to 1 is possible interior.

The western extent of the precip shield should keep amounts well
NW down slightly, but a foot or more is possible even up across
those locations.

Winds will be quite gusty, with 40+ mph at times possible.
Blizzard conditions are possible at times, just not quite enough
confidence for that upgrade to the hazard.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As the slow moving storm begins to pull away, heavier snow will
taper from west to east tonight. Once again, 7-12 inches
possible well NW, 12-18 around NYC metro and into SW CT, and
slightly lower totals are expected east due to mixing
initially, and lower snow ratios.
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that convective flare up in the southeast and offshore yesterday evening is likely robbing moisture necessary for today’s “event”. there have been too many red flags to go with the bonkers totals spit out by some guidance yesterday. upper dynamics improve for the late afternoon and early evening but widespread 12”+ seems highly unlikely. 

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It sure is crazy that the models are split even this close to game time,,,I mean the exact track still very much in question and liquid amounts . If it is a long event and cold then snow will accumulate but where do the heavier bands setup and will it be moist or drier ? which models have it correct------cutback in moisture amounts on more than 1 model is concerning to me but I'm a novice

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15 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

that convective flare up in the southeast and offshore yesterday evening is likely robbing moisture necessary for today’s “event”. there have been too many red flags to go with the bonkers totals spit out by some guidance yesterday. upper dynamics improve for the late afternoon and early evening but widespread 12”+ seems highly unlikely. 

8-12 is more likely with 12+ in banding.

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