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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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The NAM continues to be a warm outlier in terms of the mid-levels over LI... it's a crazy difference between that and the globals but I've said it multiple times, do not underestimate that WAA.

Still a great run, but you lose a good bit of LE to sleet in central LI

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4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I prefer 18z, broader 2" swath and cooler. BL temps aren't so kind. 

Fwiw HRRRRRR absolutely torches the BL

Surface temperatures on the HRRR????????? Lol come on man we have a dry cold airmass with low dew points with northeast winds during the storm. I doubt we see those temps the HRRR is advertising.

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7 minutes ago, Ace said:

Surface temperatures on the HRRR????????? Lol come on man we have a dry cold airmass with low dew points with northeast winds during the storm. I doubt we see those temps the HRRR is advertising.

Not that we won't wetbulb tomorrow, but it's 38 at this hour in C NJ.

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2 minutes ago, Enigma said:

Not that we won't wetbulb tomorrow, but it's 38 at this hour in C NJ.

Surface temperatures are a bit high in our area at the moment, but the HRRR has temps for some people on here at 18Z tomorrow in the upper 30's! The cold surface temperatures after the initial burst of precipitation tomorrow I am fairly confident about. Of course mid level temperatures and precipitation rates are much more questionable. 

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