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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

They are just so bullish immediately after being burned. There forecasting something is literally unprecedented in NYC history. Calling for greater than 10:1 ratios with a borderline BL and less than stellar mid and upper level temps is suspect. If They cited they believe there will be more liquid than guidance suggests I could get behind that.

We had 80 degrees in February, we had 2 hurricanes up here in a couple year span and we've had 4 huge nor'easters in the span of the last couple of weeks.  "Unprecedented" events are the new normal around here in this decade so 10:1 ratios in a late March storm will certainly not be shocking. The ground is cold, the airmass is cold, there will be a strong storm offshore drawing in its own cold air with tons of mositure so if NYC gets into banding 12+ inches plus is certainly possible. Climo gets thrown out in situations like these.  Usually I'm on the conservative side like you but this storm has a good chance to deliver historical late March totals.

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1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

We had 80 degrees in February, we had 2 hurricanes up here in a couple year span and we've had 4 huge nor'easters in the span of the last couple of weeks.  "Unprecedented" events are the new normal around here in this decade so 10:1 ratios in a late March storm will certainly not be shocking. The ground is cold, the airmass is cold, there will be a strong storm offshore drawing in its own cold air so if NYC gets into banding 12+ inches plus is certainly possible. Climo gets thrown out in situations like these

Agree

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7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah, and what did you get last week after being so confident it wouldn't be slop? There's reason why NYC has NEVER had a 12" storm this late...

you have to go 150 years for the last time NYC had 12" on the 21st...1958 just missed with 11.8" on the 21st...Newark got over a foot...

1868...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1868-03-23/ed-1/seq-5/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1868-03-23/ed-1/seq-8/

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I hope my old stomping grounds really cash in and I think they will (NE Bergen County). The last nor'easter was for us up here with about 18" and more just west of here. This one is your storm with a nice cold airmass in place. Only expecting around 6in here and that might be pushing it. Either way this is looking like an historic storm for spring in NYC and points south and west. Good luck

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2 minutes ago, uncle W said:

you have to go 150 years for the last time NYC had 12" on the 21st...1958 just missed with 11.8" on the 21st...Newark got over a foot...

1868...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1868-03-23/ed-1/seq-5/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1868-03-23/ed-1/seq-8/

Newark and NYC are so close to each other, they have the same climate and if one can get over a foot certainly the other can. History is against us, but it is not impossible and while I would not be shocked we see a lower end storm of 6 or so( many stations going with 6-12 ) I would not be shocked if it went the other way as well. 

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12 minutes ago, uncle W said:

you have to go 150 years for the last time NYC had 12" on the 21st...1958 just missed with 11.8" on the 21st...Newark got over a foot...

1868...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1868-03-23/ed-1/seq-5/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1868-03-23/ed-1/seq-8/

How much of NYC was farmland 150 years ago?

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6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

What time does the snow get cranking down the shore?  I'm north coastal Monmouth County.  Any chance at a foot down here?

Frankie..is it too hard to scroll back a page or two before ya post???

your answer is there!!!!!! ;)

 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s funny but at the end of it all NYC might have the least snow of DCA PHL BOS for March.  Let’s say NYC gets 12 tomorrow which puts them at 16 or so.  If DCA gets close to 8 or a bit over and that storm this weekend hits them they may end up ahead for the month 

The weekend storm looks much warmer and therefore they'll slop

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s funny but at the end of it all NYC might have the least snow of DCA PHL BOS for March.  Let’s say NYC gets 12 tomorrow which puts them at 16 or so.  If DCA gets close to 8 or a bit over and that storm this weekend hits them they may end up ahead for the month 

he weekend storm looks much warmer and therefore they'll slop

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12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Philly is further inland first of all, less UHI, yeah Sussex can maybe get 11:1(highly doubt it even there during daylight). I don't care about there. NYC will IMO be 8:1 at best.

Thinking about it, I agree with you. Even out here, ratios will probably be only 5-7:1. And in the city maybe 3-4:1. Especially with daylight savings.

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Once again because it appears it’s going to be heavily dynamic and banded there will probably be a screw zone.  If I had to guess right now the screw zone will be western LI but it could be as far west as Queens and Brooklyn 

If Western LI got screwed and dryslotted would they still get a half a foot?

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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Once again because it appears it’s going to be heavily dynamic and banded there will probably be a screw zone.  If I had to guess right now the screw zone will be western LI but it could be as far west as Queens and Brooklyn 

You've gotta be kidding me.  I don't know if I can take a 4th straight storm of getting screwed, now that would be unprecedented for western L.I. to be in the screw zone for the 4th straight time while historical totals pile up north, south, east and west of the area.  I might have to take a couple of winters of stormtracking off if this happened again haha.

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Lol some things never change in this forum.

1-There will always be the pessimistic debbie downers trying to downplay things with snow trying to find and hang onto the model with the least amount of snow or some other issue (rates/sunangle) and it's always the usual suspects and  2-Franklin will ask how much for northern coastal Monmouth county. Every storm lol

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4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

I put a lot of thought into this, final call

Inside the pink line - 1-3"

Inside the light blue line - 2-5"

Inside the dark blue line - 4-8"

Inside the green line - 5-10"

Inside the red line - 6-12"

Locally higher amounts possible in banding. Wouldn't shock me if someone pulled out 18", however confidence is below average on the higher amounts.

sketched_5ab1769a489ca.png

 

 

oh I would sign on for this...please be right...I dont need to plow 12-18 inches. I think Mt Holly is way overdone and your totals are very reasonable

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2 minutes ago, sferic said:

If Western LI got screwed and dryslotted would they still get a half a foot?

I would think so.  I think between 21-01Z though there will be some sort of subsistent area around the heavy banding. If you shift it a bit west of where most guidance shows it right now it puts the heavy banding near or just west of NYC

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

The last thing I'll say ratio related for now is if NYC sees a foot which is very possible it will be due to loads of LE, not because of ratios. I want a shutdown storm as much as the next guy. Let's root on the ARW.

Let's root for the Ukie , HRDPS , RPM , Nam , Rgem

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