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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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1 hour ago, allgame830 said:

hmmm mayb NYC public schools will close tomorrow..... any takers!?!

Likely not as the heaviest precipitation will fall after schools start, the heat Island effect, although March is still a factor as well as foot and auto traffic helping to keep the streets mostly slushy. I’d be VERY SURPRISED if they closed for tomorrow. My wife’s district and my kids have both gone with likely 2 hour early dismissal here in N. Suffolk.

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1 minute ago, strgazr27 said:

Likely not as the heaviest precipitation will fall after schools start, the heat Island effect, although March is still a factor as well as foot and auto traffic helping to keep the streets mostly slushy. I’d be VERY SURPRISED if they closed for tomorrow. My wife’s district and my kids have both gone with likely 2 hour early dismissal here in N. Suffolk.

Unlike the suburbs, you can't just close some of the NYC Public Schools without closing all of them. Just because Manhattan might not have true blizzard conditions they may still close schools if the other 4 boroughs experience blizzard conditions. 

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The NAM is a little bit North of the Euro, but wow that is close.

Well, the Euro got over an inch of LE into the NYC proper area.  It may have cut totals north of the city, but it raised them in the city itself.  If that is what the 18z NAM showed, I'll take it.

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For those cheerleading the 18z NAM, my point was that it has the same sharp cutoff that the Euro has to the North, except that it's a bit further North. And initially it didn't look like anything was going to make it North of the city at all, but luckily that changed.

If the NAM is even 30-40 miles too far North, nobody North of the city is seeing much of anything.

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There is some uncertainty with the ECMWF solution pointing to
lower liquid equivalent amounts, but it appears to be an
outlier from the respect of a weaker closed low off the New
England coast by Wednesday night. The exact placement of the
heavy snow band is also a difficult thing to pinpoint, but a
well defined deformation zone and frontogenesis to the NW of
the low track points to this signal
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