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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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I think NWS Mt. Holly is doing a good job framing this up, as well, regarding snow totals.  From their 12:35 pm AFD -

The forecast snow total map includes todays sleet/snow mix and
the anticipated much greater snowfall on Wednesday. Please
realize that pavement amounts will be considerably less but we
expect at least 5 inches on all pavements in NJ/e PA from this
storm as a minimum and at least 3" pavements ne MD and N DE. We
forecast for the traditional accumulating surfaces including
homes/trees/wires and that is what will cause the power
outages...ie 6" or more of wet snow (32-33F) should trigger a
sharp increase in power outages. Also wind driven wet snow or
freezing rain clinging to branches and wires will be part of the
power outage problem. Our forecast amounts are presented on our
winter wx page and social media briefing packages serves as a
good start!

Finally,  heaviest accumulations will be found in the hilly areas,
with less in the urban centers.
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3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

DZG = dendritic growth zone...i.e., the levels (temperatures) in the levels in the atmosphere where the fluffiest snowflakes form.  With the best lift being below those levels, snowflake production won't be as efficient and you won't get such big fluffy dendrites, which are what make for high snow to liquid ratios.  Instead you'll get lesser quality dendrites, needles, plates that pack together more closely.  it doesn't mean less snow will fall, but it won't pile up as deep.

 

On another note, here at the surface at 1PM on the first day of spring it is 32F and overcast with a steady northeast breeze.  Definitely a different feel than before the prior March snowstorms.

Yeah feels like feb not march

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5 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said:

I think NWS Mt. Holly is doing a good job framing this up, as well, regarding snow totals.  From their 12:35 pm AFD -


The forecast snow total map includes todays sleet/snow mix and
the anticipated much greater snowfall on Wednesday. Please
realize that pavement amounts will be considerably less but we
expect at least 5 inches on all pavements in NJ/e PA from this
storm as a minimum and at least 3" pavements ne MD and N DE. We
forecast for the traditional accumulating surfaces including
homes/trees/wires and that is what will cause the power
outages...ie 6" or more of wet snow (32-33F) should trigger a
sharp increase in power outages. Also wind driven wet snow or
freezing rain clinging to branches and wires will be part of the
power outage problem. Our forecast amounts are presented on our
winter wx page and social media briefing packages serves as a
good start!

Finally,  heaviest accumulations will be found in the hilly areas,
with less in the urban centers.

Not convinced this will be the case, if temps are upper 20s and a decent amount is falling outside of peak sun hours with high rates, I think NYC will be fine

 

We are in the mid/upper 30s with 10s dewpoints right now. Another world compared to the other storms. 

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8 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

Not convinced this will be the case, if temps are upper 20s and a decent amount is falling outside of peak sun hours with high rates, I think NYC will be fine

 

We are in the mid/upper 30s with 10s dewpoints right now. Another world compared to the other storms. 

Exactly, anyone comparing this to the other storms is in for a big surprise 

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The UKIE pretty much shows 40MM for NYC Proper (the dividing line between 30-40 and 40-50 is right there), and that is over 1.5 inches of liquid.  Even at 8:1 ratios, that is 12.6 inches of snow.  And a slight tick north gets us into even more.  Great run!

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5 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said:

Correct me if I'm mistaken Rjay, but it seems to me like 850s are even slightly colder than 00z on the UKie

I only glanced but they look pretty similar  (within a degree C).  The surface is a touch colder.

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2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I only glanced but they look pretty similar  (within a degree C).  The surface is a touch colder.

Yeah, meteograms for NYC at least show temps being similar, maybe slightly warmer. Was trying to compare the 6 hour maps, but that can be tough. Maybe it is further east though

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