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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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7 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

None of those would be much lower. The Kuchera might even be higher...

Umm, NO.  Still a heckuva storm for any time of the year...epic for the first full day of Spring as far as I'm concerned...and I'm lovin' it, but these 10:1 20"+ maps are just being tossed about with little care imo.  Good luck to all, hope everyone in this forum and others gets buried...safely!

 

kuchera.gif

10to1.gif

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Forky is right based on the literal model soundings but I think they underestimate the depth of the zone with best lift.  That being said even interior SNE didn’t get 10:1 ratios in April 1997 and we’ll have plenty of riming.

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It's much colder than the last three storms, currently 35F with dews in the teens. It was around 33/34 during the last few storms.

But I'm not convinced in those high amounts yet. Those are historic, all-time numbers and any sneaky warm layer, subsidence or last minute shifts could give us a lot less than forecast.

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31 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

Of course most ignored this post.

Forky - please elaborate. Thanks in advance.

DGZ = dendritic growth zone...i.e., the levels (temperatures) in the levels in the atmosphere where the fluffiest snowflakes form.  With the best lift being below those levels, snowflake production won't be as efficient and you won't get such big fluffy dendrites, which are what make for high snow to liquid ratios.  Instead you'll get lesser quality dendrites, needles, plates that pack together more closely.  it doesn't mean less snow will fall, but it won't pile up as deep.

 

On another note, here at the surface at 1PM on the first day of spring it is 32F and overcast with a steady northeast breeze.  Definitely a different feel than before the prior March snowstorms.

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