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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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Just now, winterwarlock said:

how the heck can Mt Holly come in so hot at widespread 12-14 given what the euro/nam showed last night?

First of all...  the EURO has a SE bias and has been too dry as of late in the short term...  as for the NAM that run is tossed unless it shows similar.... stop model hugging look at the whole picture...

GFS/UKMET/RGEM all in the 8-12+ range... the UKMET was a bomb.  IMO the NAM corrects itself and EURO has been very subpar as of late.

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm still concerned it may reach as far as SI/SRN Bklyn and Queens.  The 06Z RGEM got it to there and its verifying well through 1330Z showing precip only into far SRN NJ

Yeah I guess that could happen. 

As I said last night, I think we'll be watching the radar for hours and hallucinating about how it's about to start snowing only for it ultimately get pushed South.

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3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Winds will be hard pressed to verify blizzard although we'v seen warnings before even when it was obviously not going to verify.

Gusts of 30KT+ will easily verify at JFK and LGA - the question is the persistent +SN or BLSN for vis 1/4SM or less.

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11 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

3-6 inches for NYC is my call, I honestly do not understand uptons forecast.  With that said, I did not understand uptons forecast last storm of 12-15 inches especially when they increased totals mid storm.  We all know the results...  

100% with you on this one. BUT, Upton will issue a BW and therefore NYC schools will close.

 

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I think it was irresponsible for Upton to pull the trigger on 12-16, it's like they've been run by weenies this season with so many aggressive forecasts.  When there is so much doubt as there is with this storm, conservative is the best route to take. 

I think 4-8 would have been a good call then bump up if necessary. This storm has a lot of bust potential.

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