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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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25 minutes ago, Paragon said:

April 1982 was also a lot more in other places- I believe Newark got 13"

 

April 1915- I dont know how NYC only had 10" Philly had close to 20"

The storm passed somewhat too far to the south and east to bring NYC into its heaviest snows. The storm's precipitation intensity was greatest over southeastern Pennsylvania.

Select accumulations:

Allentown: 5.0”
Atlantic City: 6.0”
Boston: 6.1”
Bridgeport: 6.4”
Cutchogue: 10.0”
Harrisburg: Trace
New London: 9.0”
New York City: 10.0”
Newark: 15.8”
Philadelphia: 19.4”
Portland: 8.6”
Providence: 4.6”
Wilmington: 12.0”

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro has had SE tendencies this year with coastal lows and to be honest since the upgrade 2 winters ago inside 24-36.  Its also generally been dry.  I think both Upton and Taunton are weighing that idea.

I posted the below in the NE thread:

For the EURO followers, this model always seems to a. Be too far SE with precip and b. Dry. 

Last storm EURO had me at 4 inches and I received 9.5

Jan 5th was barely supposed to reach me and received 10.5

I have heard it has a se bias too. 

So NW CT, Hartford etc. I would not put too much weight into the EURO solution, or just bump the precip NW by a few miles.

NWS and TWC have to be doing this given their forecast.

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4 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said:

What model are you guys gunning for as most reliable? Me personally, I'm going with the HRDPS

No way.  Its been pretty bad as of late.  TBH the NAM has been best recently but this event it has been wobbling all over the place.  The UKMET has probably been the most consistent leading into the event by far.

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

No way.  Its been pretty bad as of late.  TBH the NAM has been best recently but this event it has been wobbling all over the place.  The UKMET has probably been the most consistent leading into the event by far.

The HRDPS has been closest to my estimate of 7-10 inches for my area, which was my guess since late Sunday. But I can see what you mean. I also liked what the RGEM said this morning too.

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Don't forget that the Cobb Snow Method two days ago had 25"+ on the NAM for LGA, but 0" on the same  GFS.   They both have settled near 12" this morning.  Again, what will be left when this is over.   A 1958 style cleanup, looks unlikely..

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32 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

SREFs should be quite entertaining. Approaching 3" LE

The great April Fools Day blizzard of 1997 had 3”+ LEs in the jackpot zones of 2-2.5’.   But that storm was VERY wet - warmer antecedent airmass and temps in the 50s throughout New England for several days in advance of the storm.

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Going to require a blizzard warning IMO. The past few storms were like the boy who cried wolf for NYC. 

Well from a piece of the NWS they are saying it could be possible they issue it.  Yes only the Jan 4th blizzard was warranted for the NYC schools to be closed.  We will see what happens here.

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The dew points verified lower again this morning vs model forecasts. So it will be interesting to see what the 12z guidance does once these lower numbers are fed into the models.

This first storm is toast, in fact I think the cutoff ends up South of Philly. You can already see a convergence zone setting up over Northern Delaware. Doesn't look like anything is currently falling Northeast of extreme SW NJ when you look at base radar.

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